Spatial Matrices of Urban Expansion in Lafia, North-Central Nigeria

Abstract

Rapid urbanisation in African cities has caused considerable problems by hindering their ability to meet infrastructure and service needs, resulting in rising land-use consumption. This study examines how land use/land cover change in Lafia, a city in North-central Nigeria, has impacted the city's boundaries between 1999 and 2019 and includes a projection using GIS simulation of land use/ land cover to 2029. The methodology includes remote sensing techniques, spatiotemporal analysis of geographical measurements, and statistical models. This study involved spatial analysis and projection of city growth from 1999 to 2029 in Lafia using GIS. This analysis focuses on the changes in built-up areas, vegetal cover, bare land, and water bodies using land-use/landcover data. The results indicated significant urban expansion and its impact on the city's spatial patterns. The Urban Expansion Differentiation Index (UEDI) and Urban Expansion Intensity Index (UEII)were used to assess urban sprawl and socioeconomic patterns such as population density and density gradient. High residential and employment densities, varied land uses, continuous development, and multi-modal transportation are all important for sustainable urban growth. The study indicates a direct relationship between population growth and urban expansion, as seen in Lafia. Furthermore, the findings suggest that cities grow beyond their typical boundaries, resulting in peri-urban expansion, as shown in the Alakio districts of the Lafia Metropolis. The study findings have important implications for urban growth policy and land use/land cover change. They will contribute to a better understanding of the effects of urban growth on the spatial matrix and morphology of cities, assisting city planners in recognizing these effects. Furthermore, the study adds evidence to the continuing debate about urban expansion, liveability, and spatial sustainability in African cities. The thorough examination of land use/land cover change in Lafia sheds light on the spatial dynamics of urbanisation and its implications for sustainable urban development.