Spatial Dynamics of Climate-Driven Suitability for Africa’s Rainfed Staple Crops

Agriculture production is directly dependent on climate change and weather. Possible changes in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration are expected to significantly impact crop growth and ultimately we lose our crop productivity and indirectly affect the sustainable food availability issue. The overall impact of climate change on worldwide food production is considered to be low to moderate with successful adaptation and adequate irrigation. Climate change has a serious impact on the availability of various resources on the earth especially water, which sustains life on this planet. The global food security situation and outlook remains delicately imbalanced amid surplus food production and the prevalence of hunger, due to the complex interplay of social, economic, and ecological factors that mediate food security outcomes at various human and institutional scales. Weather aberration poses complex challenges in terms of increased variability and risk for food producers and the energy and water sectors. Changes in the biosphere, biodiversity and natural resources are adversely affecting human health and quality of life. Throughout the 21st century, India is projected to experience warming above global level. India will also begin to experience more seasonal variation in temperature with more warming in the winters than summers. Longevity of heat waves across India has extended in recent years with warmer night temperatures and hotter days, and this trend is expected to continue. Strategic research priorities are outlined for a range of sectors that underpin global food security, including: agriculture, ecosystem services from agriculture, climate change, international trade, water management solutions, the water-energy-food security nexus, service delivery to smallholders and women farmers, and better governance models and regional priority setting. There is a need to look beyond agriculture and invest in affordable and suitable farm technologies if the problem of food insecurity is to be addressed in a sustainable manner. Introduction Globally, agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. This vulnerability is relatively higher in India in view of the large population depending on agriculture and poor coping capabilities of small and marginal farmers. Impacts of climate change pose a serious threat to food security. “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (World Food Summit, 1996). This definition gives rise to four dimensions of food security: availability of food, accessibility (economically and physically), utilization (the way it is used and assimilated by the human body) and stability of these three dimensions. According to the United Nations, in 2015, there are still 836 million people in the world living in extreme poverty (less than USD1.25/day) (UN, 2015). And according to the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), at least 70 percent of the very poor live in rural areas, most of them depending partly (or completely) on agriculture for their livelihoods. It is estimated that 500 million smallholder farms in the developing world are supporting almost 2 billion people, and in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa these small farms produce about 80 percent of the food consumed. Climate change threatens to reverse the progress made so far in the fight against hunger and malnutrition. As highlighted by the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC), climate change augments and intensifies risks to food security for the most vulnerable countries and populations. Few of the major risks induced by climate change, as identified by IPCC have direct consequences for food security (IPCC, 2007). These are mainly to loss of rural livelihoods and income, loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, livelihoods loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems and food insecurity (breakdown of food systems). Rural farmers, whose livelihood depends on the use of natural resources, are likely to bear the brunt of adverse impacts. Most of the crop simulation model runs and experiments under elevated temperature and carbon dioxide indicate that by 2030, a 3-7% decline in the yield of principal cereal crops like rice and wheat is likely in India by adoption of current production technologies. Global warming impacts growth, reproduction and yields of food and horticulture crops, increases crop water requirement, causes more soil erosion, increases thermal stress on animals leading to decreased milk yields and change the distribution and breeding season of fisheries. Fast changing climatic conditions, shrinking land, water and other natural resources with rapid growing population around the globe has put many challenges before us (Mukherjee, 2014). Food is going to be second most challenging issue for mankind in time to come. India will also begin to experience more seasonal variation in temperature with more warming in the winters than summers (Christensen et al., 2007). Climate change is posing a great threat to agriculture and food security in India and it's subcontinent. Water is the most critical agricultural input in India, as 55% of the total cultivated areas do not have irrigation facilities. Currently we are able to secure food supplies under these varying conditions. Under the threat of climate variability, our food grain production system becomes quite comfortable and easily accessible for local people. India's food grain production is estimated to rise 2 per cent in 2020-21 crop years to an all-time high of 303.34 million tonnes on better output of rice, wheat, pulse and coarse cereals amid good monsoon rains last year. In the 2019-20 crop year, the country's food grain output (comprising wheat, rice, pulses and coarse cereals) stood at a record 297.5 million tonnes (MT). Releasing the second advance estimates for 2020-21 crop year, the agriculture ministry said foodgrain production is projected at a record 303.34 MT. As per the data, rice production is pegged at record 120.32 MT as against 118.87 MT in the previous year. Wheat production is estimated to rise to a record 109.24 MT in 2020-21 from 107.86 MT in the previous year, while output of coarse cereals is likely to increase to 49.36 MT from 47.75 MT. Pulses output is seen at 24.42 MT, up from 23.03 MT in 2019-20 crop year. In the non-foodgrain category, the production of oilseeds is estimated at 37.31 MT in 2020-21 as against 33.22 MT in the previous year. Sugarcane production is pegged at 397.66 MT from 370.50 MT in the previous year, while cotton output is expected to be higher at 36.54 million bales (170 kg each) from 36.07. This production figure seem to be sufficient for current population, but we need to improve more and more with vertical farming and advance agronomic and crop improvement tools for future burgeoning population figure under the milieu of climate change issue. Our rural mass and tribal people have very limited resources and they sometime complete depend on forest microhabitat. To order to ensure food and nutritional security for growing population, a new strategy needs to be initiated for growing of crops in changing climatic condition. The country has a large pool of underutilized or underexploited fruit or cereals crops which have enormous potential for contributing to food security, nutrition, health, ecosystem sustainability under the changing climatic conditions, since they require little input, as they have inherent capabilities to withstand biotic and abiotic stress. Apart from the impacts on agronomic conditions of crop productions, climate change also affects the economy, food systems and wellbeing of the consumers (Abbade, 2017). Crop nutritional quality become very challenging, as we noticed that, zinc and iron deficiency is a serious global health problem in humans depending on cereal-diet and is largely prevalent in low-income countries like Sub-Saharan Africa, and South and South-east Asia. We report inefficiency of modern-bred cultivars of rice and wheat to sequester those essential nutrients in grains as the reason for such deficiency and prevalence (Debnath et al., 2021). Keeping in mind the crop yield and nutritional quality become very daunting task to our food security issue and this can overcome with the proper and time bound research in cognizance with the environment. Threat and challenges In recent years, climate change has become a debatable issue worldwide. South Asia will be one of the most adversely affected regions in terms of impacts of climate change on agricultural yield, economic activity and trading policies. Addressing climate change is central for global future food security and poverty alleviation. The approach would need to implement strategies linked with developmental plans to enhance its adaptive capacity in terms of climate resilience and mitigation. Over time, there has been a visible shift in the global climate change initiative towards adaptation. Adaptation can complement mitigation as a cost-effective strategy to reduce climate change risks. The impact of climate change is projected to have different effects across societies and countries. Mitigation and adaptation actions can, if appropriately designed, advance sustainable development and equity both within and across countries and between generations. One approach to balancing the attention on adaptation and mitigation strategies is to compare the costs and benefits of both the strategies. The most imminent change is the increase in the atmospheric temperatures due to increase levels of GHGs (Green House Gases) i.e. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) etc into the atmosphere. The global mean annual temperatures at the end of the 20th

Toward sustainable crop production in China: A co-benefits evaluation

This discussion explores the opportunities and challenges in enhancing food production and security in the context of climatic variability in Sub Saharan Africa. The promotion of sustainable use of plant and animal products with emphasis on satisfying basic human needs, improving people’s standard of living, enhancing food security and reducing poverty have taken a center stage in Sub Saharan Africa. However, the efforts in this direction are being impacted negatively by climate change, through animal and crop production which have not been spared due to the natural disasters and environmental challenges which have affected all regions of Sub Saharan Africa indiscriminately. Climate is a particularly important driver of food production systems performance at the agriculture end of the food chain. It can affect the quantities and types of food produced as well as production-related income especially for the poor resource farmers. In order to be able to adequately address food production and security in the context of climate, there is need for the region to carry out thorough climatic vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Supporting research and training of experts to carry out vulnerability and adaptation assessments on crop and livestock production is crucial in order for respective countries to develop climate change adaptation measures to meet the obligation on food production and security. Sub Saharan Africa’s agro-ecological regions are variable and need to develop specific adaptive measures to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Due to the changing climatic conditions which the continent has already witnessed many severe climatic induced vulnerability such as decline in rainfall amounts and intensity, reduced length of rain season and increasing warm and occasionally very hot conditions has affected food production and security. Crop and livestock production systems will need to adapt to higher ambient temperatures, lower nutritional value of feed resources and new diseases and parasites occurrence. It can be seen that the present crop and livestock production systems based on pastoral or rangeland grazing husbandry systems, ecological destruction through climatic variability and overgrazing due to high stocking rates in areas where feed and water has been compromised due to high temperatures caused by climate change does not augur well for future livestock productivity. The understanding of climate change variables and their impacts is the first step in climate change research and prerequisite for defining appropriate adaptive responses by local crop and livestock farmers. Sustainable crop and livestock production supporting rural development should be compatible with the goals of curbing the effects of climate change. Production priorities should be directed towards promoting local crop and livestock genetic resources by providing comprehensive research support services on the impact of climate change. Both crops and livestock play important roles in farming systems, as they offer opportunities for risk coping, farm diversification and intensification, and provide significant livelihood benefits and food security. The discussion therefore, concludes that the effectiveness of biophysical responses of crop and livestock production systems to specific environmental challenges that are anticipated as a result of climate change, and then the range of adaptive measures that might be taken by local producers to ameliorate their effects will be the prerequisite for defining appropriate societal responses and meet food security targets.

Sustaining crop production and productivity in sub-Saharan Africa requires the availability and use of quality seed of improved varieties by smallholder farmers. The private sector has been considered as the best way to sustain seed supply and crop productivity. Unfortunately, the private sector’s share in the seed production and delivery in sub-Saharan Africa countries has not been very substantial for decades. As a consequence, farmer access to quality seed of recently released varieties remains very low. This manuscript analyzes the experiences of informal seed producers who graduated to formal private seed enterprises to understand the effectiveness of the support they receive to become viable seed ventures. We used comparative research methods to analyze the qualitative and quantitative data collected to understand the underlying mechanisms. The findings showed that the analyzed seed enterprises started with as little as about USD 300 and have already multiplied over tenfold their initial capital. They benefited from a wide variety of supports, e.g., quality seed production, marketing, partnerships, and value chain development trainings and infrastructures, from extension workers, research centers, national and international NGOs, and the other private seed enterprise operators like large public seed enterprises and agro-dealers. The seed enterprises are producing pre-basic, basic, and certified seed of cereals and self-pollinated legume crops delivered directly to farmers, institutional markets, and agro-dealers. The seed production data have been increasing for the past three years with an area expanding from about 30 ha to over 150 ha per year for chickpea. The seed production and delivery practices being employed are smallholder farmer-based practices that are environmentally friendly. For sustainable and reliable seed production and delivery systems in sub-Saharan Africa, a bold step is needed whereby the informal seed production entities are nurtured and upgraded into formal certified seed production ventures that deliver social and economic benefits to the promotors and the communities.

Climate change is alarming, particularly for agriculturists as it severely impacts the development, distribution, and survival of insects and pests, affecting crop production globally. Over time, climate change is drastically tumbling the crop productivity in all the cropping systems, whereas the dryland agriculture with existing low productivity is immensely hit. While all the existing species in drylands, including humans, are coping with extreme climate variations for millennia, future climate change predictions put dryland agriculture in a threat zone. Drylands support 38% of the world’s population; therefore, climate change coupled with population growth and global food security draws the attention of scientists towards sustainable crop production under changing trends. The intermingling and intermixing of various biological, hydrological, and geographical systems plus the anthropogenic factors continuously amplify the changes in the dryland systems. All of this brings us to one challenge: developing pest management strategies suitable for changing climatic patterns. In this complex agrology framework, integrated pest management (IPM) strategies, especially those involving early monitoring of pests using prediction models, are a way to save the show. In this chapter, we will summarize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on crop production, the biology of insect pests, the changing pest scenarios, the efficacy of current pest management tactics, and the development of next-generation crop protection products. Finally, we will provide a perspective on the integration of best agronomic practices and crop protection measures to achieve the goal of sustainable crop production under changing climatic trends of drylands.

Changing climate patterns are a major contributing factor in the failure of government initiatives and sustainable crop production, particularly for subsistence smallholder farming systems in Botswana. These challenges faced by small-scale farmers require more than just programs and policy implementation; continuous assessment is essential to achieve their mandate. Moreover, there is limited research in Botswana to provide an understanding of issues related to policy implementation and the progression of crop production after the implementation of these policies. Therefore, this systematic review aims to evaluate government-implemented programs and policies for promoting sustainable crop production in Botswana, examining their successes, failures and providing recommendations for sustainable crop production. PRISMA guidelines were followed for systematic review via the Google Scholar database, and inclusion and exclusion criteria were observed for the eligibility of the assessed articles. The major findings indicate that several programs and national policies for sustainable crop production have been implemented in Botswana over the past decades. However, crop production continues to decline despite governmental efforts. The increasing adverse effects of climate change have contributed to the failure of government efforts. To advance sustainable crop production and resilience to climate change, the following adaptation approaches are recommended: efficient and sustainable use of water resources in agriculture, policy reformation, capacity building, regional collaboration, and climate-smart agriculture. Moreover, extensive evaluations are necessary for policies and implemented programs. This includes timely adjustments to policies on the basis of feedback from monitoring and evaluating specific, measurable indicators of ongoing policies and programs. Furthermore, engaging relevant stakeholders and local community members in the monitoring and evaluation process can enhance the relevance and accuracy of implemented government policies or programs.

Crop production sustainability (CPS) faces unprecedented challenges due to climate change. Although land-management technologies (LMTs) show potential in improving yields, their contribution to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) remains poorly quantified. Here, we assess LMTs’ impacts on CPS toward achieving SDGs through process-based crop models. We find high CPS concentrated in North America, East and Southeast Asia, generating maize surpluses and economic profits of 3.73 × 104 and 8.39 × 103 million USD, while Sub-Saharan Africa faces maize deficits of 561 billion tons, demonstrating global disparities in SDG2 and SDG8. LMTs exhibit regional adaptability: plastic mulching film shows highest adaptability in water-scarce regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, increasing CPS by over 23.84%. Drip irrigation suits water scarcity or seasonal drought regions, while biochar produces remarkable effects in specific countries, increasing CPS by up to 42.94%. Combined LMTs achieve 3–5 times greater improvement than optimal single LMT. We provide region-specific strategies for global CPS and SDG achievement. Broader context: Rapid global population growth and climate change have made achieving agriculture-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) increasingly challenging. While land-management technologies (LMTs) such as plastic mulching film, drip irrigation, and biochar have proven effective in increasing crop yields worldwide, their applicability remains poorly understood at the global scale. The effectiveness of these technologies is fundamentally determined by regional environmental conditions including climate, soil properties, and water availability, yet most existing research focuses on localized impacts without systematically assessing their spatial suitability or multidimensional contributions to SDGs. This research uniquely bridges this gap by establishing an integrated framework that connects microscale crop production processes with macroscale SDGs, comprehensively assessing the spatial suitability of LMTs worldwide and quantifying their contributions to SDGs. Consequently, it provides essential, evidence-based guidance for targeted agricultural interventions and supports sustainable development objectives in diverse global contexts through region-specific strategies.

Kuwait is one of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countries. Kuwait is water scarce country. The agriculture sector contributes only 0.4 % of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The engagement of local people to agriculture is less than 1.1 % and it is projected that climate change will greatly impact agricultural sector of Kuwait. Kuwait is one of the least agricultural countries in the world and the arable land amounts to less than 9 % of total acreage. Ninety one percent of national water requirements are reliant on costly desalinated water and 54 % of the total water is used for productive agriculture. Hence, there is an urgent need for adapting sustainable and economical crop production system to enhance production efficiency, productivity and quality. To overcome this situation, the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR) aims to incorporate applied research into integrated farming systems, sustainable crop production and animal production technologies. This chapter focuses on constraints and possibilities of agriculture in Kuwait and on the major agricultural production research works conducted at Aridland Agricultural Production (AAPP), and Biodiversity for Terrestrial Ecosystems (BTEP) Programs of KISR.

Climate change poses a threat to crop production and livelihoods of rural farming communities in Kenya, a majority of whom are mainly dependent on rain-fed agriculture. The purpose of this study was to examine farm-level adaptation responses towards climate change and their influencing factors, using a case study of western Kenya. Structured questionnaire was administered to 210 farmers in selected locations in the region where households farm maize as the main crop. Logistic and multiple linear regression models were used to ascertain the factors that influence farmers’ adaptation practices. The results indicate that farmers perceived climate change as being responsible for the reduction in crop yield and production, crop failure and increase of fallow farms. The major adaptation strategies undertaken by the farmers included change in planting dates by either planting early or late during a season, diversification of crops, growing early maturing cultivars, use of drought-tolerant varieties and timely planting. The key determinants of adaptation strategies by the farmers included farm size, income and extension training. Understanding farmers’ responses to climate change in rain-fed crop production systems could assist in planning adaptation strategies towards sustainable crop production.

Chapter 13 - Emerging concept of nanofertilizers for sustainable crop plants growth and production

Biochar is a promising soil additive for use in support of sustainable crop production. However, the high level of heterogeneity in biochar properties and the variations in soil composition present significant challenges to the successful uptake of biochar technologies in diverse agricultural soils. An improved understanding of the mechanisms that contribute to biochar-soil interactions is required to address issues related to climate change and cultivation practices. This review summarizes biochar modification approaches (physical, chemical, and biochar-based organic composites) and discusses the potential role of biochar in sustainable crop production and soil resiliency, including the degradation of soil organic matter, the improvement of soil quality, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Biochar design is crucial to successful soil remediation, particularly with regard to issues arising from soil structure and composition related to crop production. Given the wide variety of feedstocks for biochar production and the resultant high surface heterogeneity, greater efforts are required to optimize biochar surface functionality and porosity through appropriate modifications. The design and establishment of these approaches and methods are essential for the future utilization of biochar as an effective soil additive to promote sustainable crop production.

Climate change is one of the major challenges to global food security in the twenty-first century. There is a need to produce more food for the rapidly growing human population; however, this is being challenged by the growing anthropogenic pressure on natural resources and uncertain impacts of climate change on global agriculture. Generally, climate change encompasses but not limited to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration, air temperature and precipitation dynamics, all of which are vital for crop production. The effects of these climatic variables on crop production processes are complex and generally more challenging to deal with if different variables are combined. To ensure food security for the increasing population, we must adopt different strategies that would increase the resilience and sustainability of crop production under climate change. This chapter summarizes the major effects of climatic variables on crop production and feasible strategies to adapt to the changing climate.

Abstract. Bouam I, Khelfaoui F, Saoudi M. 2022. Inferring probable distributional gaps and climate change impacts on the medically important viper Echis leucogaster in the western Sahara-Sahel: An ecological niche modeling approach. Biodiversitas 23: 5175-5183. Knowledge of biodiversity distribution and how climate change may affect species across the Sahara-Sahel is scarce despite it harboring both high biodiversity and a high rate of endemism. As ectotherms, snakes are particularly vulnerable to climate change and susceptible to range shifts and demographic changes driven by climate change. Ecological niche models are a common method for predicting the probability of the occurrence of species and future range shifts induced by climate change. This study examines the probable gaps in the distribution of the white-bellied saw-scaled viper, Echis leucogaster, and the potential influence of climate change on its future geographic range in the western Sahara-Sahel. The currently predicted environmentally suitable areas fitted well with the known geographical range of the species showed relative congruence with the Sahara-Sahel ecoregion delineations and identified areas without known occurrences. In the future, the environmental conditions for the occurrence of E. leucogaster are predicted to increase, as the environmentally suitable areas will potentially experience an increase in their proportion. Future projections also showed that the potentially suitable areas might undergo moderate southward shifts during the late twenty-first century. The results of the present study significantly expand our knowledge on the potential distribution of E. leucogaster and provide valuable insights to guide future sampling efforts and conservation planning for the species.

Climate change poses significant challenges to global food security by disrupting agricultural nutrient dynamics through increased temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events. These changes threaten crop productivity, soil health, and environmental sustainability. Traditional nutrient management practices, often reliant on excessive chemical fertilizer use, contribute to nutrient losses, soil degradation, and greenhouse gas emissions. This review systematically analyzes 65 peer-reviewed studies (1998–2024) selected using PRISMA guidelines, supplemented by bibliometric tools, to evaluate nutrient management strategies under climate change. The results highlight climate change's multifaceted impacts on soil nutrient cycles, microbial activity, crop physiology, and crop yield. Elevated temperatures and CO2 levels alter nutrient availability and reduce grain quality, while erratic rainfall patterns exacerbate nutrient losses through leaching and runoff. Conventional fertilizer practices are shown to be inefficient and environmentally harmful, prompting a shift toward integrated nutrient management, precision agriculture, and biofertilizers. Emerging strategies such as slow- and controlled-release fertilizers, site-specific nutrient management, and decision support systems significantly improve nutrient use efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Conservation agriculture and organic amendments further enhance soil health and resilience. The discussion highlights that integrated and adaptive nutrient management frameworks, supported by technology and agroecological practices, are critical for maintaining high productivity while minimizing environmental impacts under climate change. These approaches collectively support sustainable crop production, mitigate climate impacts, and promote long-term soil fertility. The review concludes that nutrient management is central to climate-smart agriculture and offers actionable insights for researchers, farmers, and policymakers aiming to secure food systems in a changing climate.

<p>Climate change threatens vulnerable communities in sub-Saharan Africa who face significant challenges for adaptation. Agriculture provides the livelihood for the majority of population. High-resolution assessments of the effects of climate change on crop production are urgently needed for targeted adaptation planning. In Ghana, next to food needs, agriculture plays an important role on international cocoa markets. To this end, we develop and apply a National Agro-Ecological Zoning system (NAEZ Ghana) to analyze the impacts of high-end (RCP8.5) global warming on agricultural production potentials until the end of this century. NAEZ Ghana uses an ensemble of the CORDEX Africa Regional Climate Model, a regional soil map, to assess development trends of crop production potentials for 19 main crops. Results highlight differential impacts across the country. Especially due to the significant increase in the number of days exceeding high-temperature thresholds, rain-fed production of several food and export crops could be reduced significantly compared to the historical 30-year average (1981-2010). Plantain production, an important food crop, could achieve under climate change less than half of its current potential already in the 2050s and less than 10% by the 2080s. Suitable areas for cocoa production decrease strongly resulting in only one third of production potential compared to today. Other crops with detrimental effects of climate change include oil palm, sugarcane, coffee, and rubber. Production of maize, sorghum, and millet cope well with a future warmer climate. The NAEZ Ghana database provides valuable high-resolution information to support agricultural sector development planning and climate change adaptation strategies. The expansion of irrigation development will play a central role in some areas. This requires further research on Ghana’s linkages between food, water, and energy, taking into account climate and socio-economic changes.</p>