Abstract
BackgroundLivestock movements can affect the spread and control of contagious diseases and new data recording systems enable analysis of these movements. The results can be used for contingency planning, modelling of disease spread and design of disease control programs.MethodsData on the Swedish cattle and pig populations during the period July 2005 until June 2006 were obtained from databases held by the Swedish Board of Agriculture. Movements of cattle and pigs were investigated from geographical and temporal perspectives, births and deaths of cattle were investigated from a temporal perspective and the geographical distribution of holdings was also investigated.ResultsMost movements of cattle and pigs were to holdings within 100 km, but movements up to 1200 km occurred. Consequently, the majority of movements occurred within the same county or to adjacent counties. Approximately 54% of the cattle holdings and 45% of the pig holdings did not purchase any live animals. Seasonal variations in births and deaths of cattle were identified, with peaks in spring. Cattle movements peaked in spring and autumn. The maximum number of holdings within a 3 km radius of one holding was 45 for cattle and 23 for pigs, with large variations among counties. Missing data and reporting bias (digit preference) were detected in the data.ConclusionThe databases are valuable tools in contact tracing. However since movements can be reported up to a week after the event and some data are missing they cannot replace other methods in the acute phase of an outbreak. We identified long distance transports of cattle and pigs, and these findings support an implementation of a total standstill in the country in the case of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The databases contain valuable information and improvements in data quality would make them even more useful.
Highlights
Livestock movements can affect the spread and control of contagious diseases and new data recording systems enable analysis of these movements
Reported births and deaths of cattle were investigated from a temporal perspective; week of the year, day of the week and day of the month, with the purpose to examine if there were weekly or seasonal trends and if there seemed to be digit preference in the reporting
The long distance movements are important to consider in an acute phase of an outbreak of a disease such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), that would motivate an immediate standstill of livestock transports to prevent further spread
Summary
Livestock movements can affect the spread and control of contagious diseases and new data recording systems enable analysis of these movements. In case of an outbreak of a highly contagious animal disease such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), movements of livestock can be totally banned, in accordance with EUregulations, to prevent further spread [3]. Such a standstill can include the whole country or only parts of the country. A better understanding of the movements of livestock could help determine standstills in the acute phase of an outbreak and to capture appropriate regions when regionalising the country. The minimum radii of these zones are 3 km and 10 km and the geographical clustering of holdings will greatly affect the number of holdings within these zones [3,5]
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