Abstract
Rapid deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV), electric heat pumps (HP) and electric vehicles (EV) is needed to decarbonize the economy. However, the integration of these technologies into the power system creates challenges for the distribution grid infrastructure. It is therefore vital to analyse to which extent grid reinforcement is needed to enable decarbonization strategies while also studying alternative flexibility measures. In this GIS-based study, we model the impact of the deployment of PV, HP and EV on a low-voltage distribution grid network serving 170’000 households in Switzerland, and analyse scenarios for their penetration in the years 2035 and 2050. Using a detailed grid model in collaboration with a distribution system operator, we find that PV leads to 18.5% and 13.7% more voltage violation issues compared to HP and EV respectively, which on the other hand, cause slightly more line overloading, 0.5% and 2.5%, respectively. We also find that grid reinforcement costs markedly depend on the type of urban setting ranging between 51–213 CHF/kWp, 46–1’385 CHF/kW and 34–143 CHF/kW for PV, HP and EV, respectively, with the higher limit corresponding to rural areas. The total distribution grid reinforcement costs can amount up to 11 billion CHF until 2050 i.e. 2’900 CHF per household in Switzerland. Interestingly, we find that batteries, even with current costs, have the potential to defer grid reinforcement for up to 15% of the transformer stations with the highest specific grid reinforcement costs. Our study aims to inform various stakeholders about the required grid investments to enable the massive deployment of low carbon technologies.
Highlights
The energy system is undergoing a transformation from fossil fuels to renewable energy (RE) [1]
We find that grid reinforcement costs markedly depend on the type of urban setting ranging between 51–213 CHF/kWp, 46–1’385 CHF/kW and 34–143 CHF/kW for PV, heat pumps (HP) and electric vehicles (EV), respectively, with the higher limit corresponding to rural areas
Our study aims to expand the existing body of literature by: (i) analysing a large-scale real distribution area covering 170’000 households located in the second-largest Swiss canton by both surface area and population, distinguishing different urban settings, namely urban, suburban and rural; (ii) using a geographic information system (GIS)-based model to carry out long-term forecasting of PV, HP and EV deployment; (iii) comparing the individual and aggregated impacts of PV, HP and EV based on different scenarios with a detailed low-voltage distribution grid model developed by the distribution system operators (DSO); (iv) analysing the reinforcement costs as a function of technology and type of urban setting; and (v) analysing the potential of battery storage to defer distribution grid reinforcement
Summary
The energy system is undergoing a transformation from fossil fuels to renewable energy (RE) [1]. In view of the latest findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Swiss Federal Council took the decision in summer 2019 to tighten the targets and to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 [5]. To achieve these targets, Switzerland is taking steps to increase RE generation and to curb CO2 emissions from transport and heating sectors [6], which jointly contribute to 60% of all CO2 emissions [7]. EV are about 3–5 times more efficient than fossil-based vehicles and contribute to reducing urban pollution [18]
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