Space environment management: Framing the objective and setting priorities for controlling orbital debris risk

Abstract

Interest in orbital debris risk has been on the rise in recent years, as small satellites are launched in accelerating numbers, proposals for large low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellations mature, and the orbital debris population continues to grow. Environmental models are being exercised to predict collisional risk, private equity is now supporting the development of commercial Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and Active Debris Removal (ADR) services, and debris mitigation best practices and licensing guidelines are being updated by industry groups and national administrations. These are all positive responses to an increasingly challenging space operational environment, but as is often the case, we tend to rush to solutions before adequately defining the problem we are trying to solve. The authors propose Space Safety as a simple objective statement for an industry operating in a debris-laden space environment and establish the lethal nontrackable (LNT) debris population as the primary risk to assured operations in space. The authors then make the case that SAA and Space Traffic Management (STM) alone are insufficient responses to collision risk and propose Space Environment Management (SEM), consisting of both debris mitigation and debris remediation, as a critical component of a comprehensive framework the space community can use to assess the efficacy of its efforts and to prioritize the appropriation of its resources. The paper concludes with recommendations for setting priorities and directing the community's efforts and resources.