Sovereignty referendums: A question of majority?

Abstract

When it comes to the creation of states, secession, self-determination and referendums – as part of what I like to call the law of independence – the question of “majority” is deemed of outmost importance and, erroneously, to be straightforward as a means to assess popular support. Suggesting that the mere reference to “majority” is problematic, as it hides more than it reveals, this chapter resorts to the different WH-questions to actually reveal the very many facets involved in sovereignty referendums. In regard to “majority”, the questions of ‘why’ (reason), ‘how’ (manner), ‘which’ (choice), ‘when’ (time), ‘where’ (place), ‘who’ or ‘whom’ (person), ‘what’ (object), as well as derivatives such as how much (amount, uncountable) and how many (quantity, countable), all are used to show the complexity of ascertaining the people’s will. These issues include, inter alia, voter eligibility, minimum turnouts, approval quorums, simple majority, and qualified (super) majority; they are analysed here, often, in light of the Canada-Quebec experience, but also referring to the cases of Spain-Catalonia, United Kingdom-Scotland and others, as well as to the situation with the European Union and even Brexit. In the end, one thing becomes quite obvious: to determine popular support, the numeric standard of 50%+1 is but one feature, which must not overshadow the many other crucial ones involved in a sovereignty referendum.