Abstract
In this paper, we derive a structural relationship between the gold price and the U.S. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) yields under the fact that both the gold and the U.S. dollar are international currency anchors. The relationship can be interpreted as defining the fair value and the risk premium of gold in an economy model where inflation indexed bonds are traded. The fair value measures the level of the gold's value as a reserve equity of central banks. While the risk premium reflects a preference between the gold and the U.S. dollar.A study of real time decompositions of the gold price into its fair value and risk premium components is directed by taking the theory to a data set spanning the period from April 11, 2007 to October 31, 2013. It is shown empirically that a rise of the gold price is contemporaneously associated with a drop of the yield of inflation indexed bond and a rise of risk premium in appreciation of the gold.
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