South Africa’s role in global peace and security: Thirty Years of conflict resolution and a post-2024 foreign policy strategy

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ABSTRACT Over the past three decades, South Africa has become a central actor in peacebuilding and conflict resolution, using its democratic transition to advance African-led and multilateral approaches to peace and security. Guided by Pan-Africanism and liberal institutionalism, its foreign policy balances value-based commitments with geopolitical pressures. This study applies a liberal institutionalist framework and a two-by-two scenario planning methodology to examine how South Africa’s democratic experience shapes its evolving foreign policy and to forecast post-2024 trajectories. The analysis develops four scenarios based on the interaction between commitment to normative values and the intensity of external political pressures. The scenario labelled Idealism under Strain emerges as the most plausible outcome, where South Africa sustains its normative orientation while adapting to heightened regional and global demands. The findings indicate that sustaining leadership in peace and security will depend on strengthening institutions, deepening regional cooperation, and pursuing consistent principle-based diplomacy.

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