Source-oriented health risk assessment of groundwater based on hydrochemistry and two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Accurately assessing the health risks posed by major contaminants is essential for protecting groundwater. However, the complexity of pollution sources and the uncertainty of parameters pose challenges for quantitative health risk assessment. In this study, a source-oriented groundwater risk evaluation process was improved by screening key pollutants, employing a combined hydrochemical and positive matrix factorization (PMF) approach for source apportionment, and incorporating two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation for risk characterization. The application of this process to groundwater assessment in Central Jiangxi Province identified NO3-, F-, Se and Mn as the key pollutants. The pollution sources were anthropogenic activities, rock dissolution, regional geological processes, and ion exchange. Anthropogenic sources contributed 36.8 % and 28.8 % of the pollution during the wet season and dry season, respectively, and accounted for more than half of the health risks. NO3- from anthropogenic sources was the primary controlling pollutant. Additionally, the risk assessment indicated that children were at the highest health risk during the dry season, with ingestion rate suggested to be controlled below 1.062 L·day−1 to make the health risk within an acceptable range. The improved assessment methodology could provide more accurate results and recommended intakes.