Abstract

The application of analytical and interactive decision models to decisions, in EMS councils, with various levels of uncertainty is described. Uncertainty is defined as having temporal, procedural, quantifiability, and environmental attributes. Highly uncertain decisions are unique, with unknown decision procedures. Decision premises, like available funds or demands for services, are constantly shifting in uncertain environments. Low uncertainty occurs when decisions are repeatable and follow known procedures. Past practice can be used as templates when uncertainty is "low" because funding levels and use rates are predictable. The results (e.g., validity, risk of omission, etc.) of applying interactive and analytical decision models under varying levels of uncertainty are discussed.

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