‘Soluble’: Decision-making in the diagnosis of Jaundice

Abstract

We have designed a computer program ‘Solubile’ to aid clinicians in the diagnosis of jaundice. Based on Bayes' theorem, ‘Solubile’ uses up to 47 items of information about the patient to produce the most probable diagnosis from 22 possible diseases. In a prospective analysis of 50 patients, 74% were correctly diagnosed in first place and 94% within the first three choices. The possibility of using ‘Solubile’ at differing locations was tested by prospectively diagnosing 100 cases at a second centre having a significantly different patient population. 75% of these patients were correctly diagnosed in first place and 89% within the first three choices. The diagnostic ability of ‘Solubile’ was compared with that of 20 clinicians of various grades. The clinicians correctly diagnosed 49.5% of cases (Solubile 74%) and placed 68.5% (Solubile 94%) within the first three choices. ‘Solubile’ will be of use to aid clinicians in aspects of the diagnosis and management of jaundice.