Solar variability and climate

Abstract

Solar radiation is the fundamental energy source for the atmosphere and the global average equilibrium temperature of the Earth is determined by a balance between the energy acquired by the solar radiation absorbed and the energy lost to space by the emission of heat radiation. The interaction of this radiation with the climate system is complex but it is clear that any change in total solar irradiance (TSI) has the potential to influence climate. In the past, although many papers were written on relationships between sunspot numbers and the weather, the topic of solar influences on climate was often disregarded by meteorologists. This was due to a combination of factors of which the key was the lack of any robust measurements indicating that solar radiation did indeed vary. There was also mistrust of the statistical validity of the evidence and, importantly, no established scientific mechanisms whereby the apparent changes in the Sun might induce detectable signals near the Earth’s surface. Another influence was a desire by the meteorological profession to distance itself from the Astrometeorology movement popular in the 19th century (anderson1999). Nowadays, with improved measurements of solar and climate parameters, evidence for an influence of solar variability on the climate of the lower atmosphere has emerged from the noise. This article provides a brief review of the observational evidence and an outline of the mechanisms whereby rather small changes in solar radiation may induce detectable signals near the Earth’s surface is not possible to review here all potential mechanisms for solar-climate links. What is presented offers, necessarily, a personal perspective but, of the areas that are not covered, two may be pertinent: the effects of solar energetic particles on stratospheric composition (see e.g. jackman et al. 2005) and the possible influence of galactic cosmic rays on clouds through ionisation processes (see Marsh, this volume).