Abstract
This study examines the performance of radiation processes (shortwave and longwave radiations) using numerical weather prediction models (NWPs). NWP were calculated using four different horizontal resolutions (5, 2 and 1 km, and 500 m). Validation results on solar irradiance simulations with a horizontal resolution of 500 m indicated positive biases for direct normal irradiance dominate for the period from 09 JST (Japan Standard Time) to 15 JST. On the other hand, after 15 JST, negative biases were found. For diffused irradiance, weak negative biases were found. Validation results on upward longwave radiation found systematic negative biases of surface temperature (corresponding to approximately −2 K for summer and approximately −1 K for winter). Downward longwave radiation tended to be weak negative biases during both summer and winter. Frequency of solar irradiance suggested that the frequency of rapid variations of solar irradiance (ramp rates) from the NWP were less than those observed. Generally, GHI distributions between the four different horizontal resolutions resembled each other, although horizontal resolutions also became finer.
Highlights
Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts are based on solar irradiance forecasts generated by a numerical weather prediction model (NWP) and/or machine learning predictions using data from a numerical weather prediction models (NWPs)
The frequency of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) simulations under clear-sky conditions was higher around the one to one line when compared to the Exp-Summer
In the case of clear sky conditions, GHI, DNI, and diffused irradiance (DIF) simulations are almost consistent with surface observations, meaning that radiation processes under clear sky conditions are accurate
Summary
Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts are based on solar irradiance forecasts generated by a numerical weather prediction model (NWP) and/or machine learning predictions using data from a NWP. Mathiesen et al [10] validated hourly-averaged solar irradiance forecasts for marine clouds over the southern California coast using an NWP with a 1.3 km horizontal resolution. A previous study by Ito et al [12] reported validation results on brightness, temperature, and surface precipitation from the JMA’s non-hydrostatic model (JMA-NHM), with horizontal resolutions between 5 km and 0.5 km. They did not find a significant improvement in performance between horizontal resolutions of 2 km and 0.5 km.
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