Abstract
Solar radiation, as the primary energy source of the Earth, influences the climate conditions and changes of our planet. Whether solar dimming or brightening would occur in the future under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming background was an important question. In this study, climate data under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios were used to calculate and analyse temporal and spatial changes of solar radiation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin for the future period 2020-2099. Results showed that surface solar radiation would increase under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, while it would decrease under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Especially, dramatic solar dimming would occur in all years in the future under RCP8.5, which indicated that the fluctuations of the amount of solar energy in the future were related to the emission scenarios. Spatially, under global warming 1.5 °C, solar brightening would occur mainly in the central regions and become weaker with the higher emission scenarios. However, under global warming 2 °C, solar dimming would occur mainly in the upper Jinsha River Basin and the lower reaches of the Jialing River Basin and become stronger with the higher emission scenarios. Relative to the other three RCP, obvious and dramatic solar dimming would occur under RCP8.5 in the total area.
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