Abstract
Intensification of arable crop production degrades soil health and production potential through loss of soil organic carbon. This, potentially, reduces agriculture’s resilience to climate change and thus food security. Furthermore, the expected increase in frequency of adverse and extreme weather events due to climate change are likely to affect crop yields differently, depending on when in the growing season they occur. We show that soil carbon provides farmers with a natural insurance against climate change through a gain in yield stability and more resilient production. To do this, we combined yield observations from 12 sites and 54 years of Swedish long-term agricultural experiments with historical weather data. To account for heterogenous climate effects, we partitioned the growing season into four representative phases for two major cereal crops. Thereby, we provide evidence that higher soil carbon increases yield gains from favourable conditions and reduces yield losses due to adverse weather events and how this occurs over different stages of the growing season. However, agricultural management practices that restore the soil carbon stock, thus contributing to climate change mitigation and adaptation, usually come at the cost of foregone yield for the farmer in the short term. To halt soil degradation and make arable crop production more resilient to climate change, we need agricultural policies that address the public benefits of soil conservation and restoration.
Highlights
Climate change is expected to bring more adverse weather conditions for agricultural production such as greater intra-annual climate variability and an increased likelihood of extreme weather events (Trnka et al 2014, Ray et al 2015, Moore and Lobell 2015)
We show that relatively higher soil carbon levels are generally associated with higher yields for favourable climatic conditions
Higher soil carbon reduces yield losses arising from adverse weather events at different stages of the growing season
Summary
Climate change is expected to bring more adverse weather conditions for agricultural production such as greater intra-annual climate variability and an increased likelihood of extreme weather events (Trnka et al 2014, Ray et al 2015, Moore and Lobell 2015). The timing of adverse weather events can effect crop yields differently depending on when in the growing season they occur (Peltonen-Sainio et al 2011, Chenu et al 2013, Bourgault et al 2020). SOC correlates with different soil biodiversity dimensions such as microbial biomass, community structure, and its activities (Börjesson et al 2012, Mau et al 2015). Such soil-ecosystem structures are the base of soilecosystem functions and the production of a suite of ecosystem services that underpin yields (De Vries et al 2013, Bardgett and Van Der Putten 2014, Brady et al 2015, Oldfield et al 2019). Soils can function as a carbon sink or contribute to emissions of greenhouse gases, depending on management systems (Griscom et al 2017, Schlesinger and Amundson 2019)
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