Abstract

The hard and soft energy paths are compared. The soft path for the U.S. combines greatly increased efficiency in using energy, including transitional fossil fuels, with the rapid introduction of ''soft technologies.'' These, the subject of this paper, are defined as diverse renewable sources relatively simple from the user's point of view (though often technically very sophisticated) and matched in scale and in energy quality to the range of end-use needs. Craig et al. have also suggested further criteria--soft technologies are environmentally benign, subject to ''graceful failure,'' foolproof (or resilient), and flexible--but these descriptions, though accurate, are probably derivative rather than essential to the definition. Mr. Lovins feels that a sound energy policy emphasizes the sustainable direct supply and efficient use of heat for buildings and processes and of liquid fuels for transportation, not further central electrification. A wide range of relatively simple-to-use renewable energy sources matched in scale and in energy quality to our range of end-use needs is now available at attractive marginal costs, he states. Such soft technologies appear able to make a prompt and major contribution to energy supply compared to alternative investments in central-electric systems, synfuel plants, and other centralized devices to convert depletable fuelsmore » to premium energy forms.The former technologies appear superior to the latter in costs, rates, geopolitical implications (including nuclear proliferation), and domestic sociopolitical implications (perhaps the key policy determinant). Soft technologies are increasingly being used in practice, to construct smooth transitions (over 50 years or so) to virtually complete reliance on appropriate renewable sources, meanwhile using fossil fuels far more efficiently and cleanly in transitional systems adaptable to soft sources as they are installed. 173 references. (MCW)« less

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