Socio-ecological crises and global climate tipping points as difficulties for expanding extractivisms: prognoses on the Arctic

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Arctic is often cast as a site where natural resources can be extracted with processes eased by retreating sea ice. This article argues that Arctic resource euphoria is misplaced – at least partly – due to the worsening climatic, ecological, and social crises that increase the costs and risks of extraction. Permafrost melt is making mineral and fossil fuel extraction riskier and more difficult, as extractive infrastructures – built with great sunk costs – are deteriorating. The climate catastrophe can already be observed, first-hand, in the Arctic. This can give insights into what kinds of dynamics can be expected globally. The deterioration of extractive infrastructures caused by the climate crisis is likely to dampen the forecasts for expanding extractivism. This article identifies interdisciplinary research gaps and needs, while offering new prognoses for the future in and through the Arctic at the interface of climate crises, global climate tipping points, and resource extraction.