Abstract
The research characterizes current dynamics of Ukraine’s socio-economic development in the process of its European integration in view of the Association Agreement with the European Union concluded in 2014. The comparative assessment of the development of Ukraine and individual EU countries by the criteria of GDP per capita is given. The recent increasing tendency of divergence of the socio-economic systems of the European Union and Ukraine is highlighted, describing the institutional phenomenon of the divergence trap as a result of the synthesis of poverty and non-convergence traps. The risks of Ukraine’s falling into the divergence trap, which are related to the effect of several major internal factors are outlined. The article addresses such factors as Ukraine’s adoption of conditions for restructuring a part of the national debt in 2015; unacceptably low levels of national economy capitalization in the context of convergence; galloping labour migration from Ukraine, which accounts for significant loss of domestic GDP growth potential; and small value of innovation and technology in the macroeconomic development of the state.
Highlights
With post-industrial globalization and intensified global turbulence, a new global economic crisis unfolded under the influence of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic in March 2020, which is projected to be more profound and protracted than the global financial crisis of 2008-2009
Development of the European Union before the global crisis of 2008-2009 shows that socio-economic convergence is the most effective mechanism for achieving full integration benefits, strengthening international competitive position, and stimulating development of the participating countries (Gill & Raiser, 2012) which provides for convergence of the defining parameters of their development towards higher standards and norms set by the leaders
The above results of econometric modelling suggest that if the negative social dynamics and socio-economic priorities of the state remain unchanged, Ukraine risks falling into a divergence trap in the process of European integration
Summary
With post-industrial globalization and intensified global turbulence, –, a new global economic crisis unfolded under the influence of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic in March 2020, which is projected to be more profound and protracted than the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Their convergence with the more developed countries of the united Europe has ensured significant acceleration of their socio-economic dynamics and full European integration.
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