Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology for forecasting a load duration curve. The approach adopted in the development is to estimate a load duration curve as a combined linear-exponential function and relate the coefficients of this function to a set of economic and weather related variables. This relationship allows one to forecast the coefficients which are in turn used to provide a forecast of the coefficients of interest. The model presented, for a specific set of data, forecasts well and presents a substantial improvement over existing approaches to obtaining future load duration curves.
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