Slowing down and divergence in growth are the barriers to the modern global economy sustainability

This study examines the dynamics of Trump's tariff strategy, as well as its long-term impacts on the global economy, trade networks, and inflation trajectories through 2025 and 2030. Using updated statistics and economic models, the analysis shows how protectionist trade policies, which were designed to address trade imbalances, have instead contributed to supply-chain regionalization, a slowdown in global growth, and persistent inflationary pressures. Empirical evidence from 2020 to 2025 shows that the tariff war raised the U.S. trade deficit and delayed the expansion of international commerce. The report offers three forward-looking scenarios - Technological Protectionism, Strategic Recalibration, and Bloc Polarization - in order to assess different policy paths. The results show that while recalibration through selective liberalization could restore modest growth and inflation stability, sustained tariff rises could reduce global GDP growth to 1.7% and trade volume by more than 10% by 2030. Policy proposals emphasize the need to revitalize multilateral trade governance, coordinate monetary and fiscal policies, and promote regional production resilience through sustainable and unique tariff regimes. The research predicts that globalization will eventually shift toward "managed interdependence" by fusing strategic autonomy with cooperative frameworks. These findings provide an essential basis for policymakers, economists, and international organizations seeking to develop flexible policies for an increasingly fragmented global trade landscape.

Overview: Growth resilient to protectionist concerns ▀ Despite the mounting threat of more protectionist trade measures, we expect the impact on global growth and trade to be mild. Given this, and the still fairly solid underlying economic picture, we have left our global GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 unchanged at 3.2% and 3.0% respectively. ▀ Although economic data in Q1 painted a pretty solid picture, there are signs that the global expansion may lose momentum in Q2. Most notably, the global PMI fell sharply in March, more than offsetting the gains of the previous three quarters or so. Some of the decline may reflect an over‐reaction to recent trade threats and could be reversed in April and despite the drop, the surveys still point to strong growth. But the fall highlights the risk that lingering trade tensions could damage confidence and prompt firms and consumers to delay investment and major spending plans. ▀ On a more positive note, China's economic growth picked up markedly in early 2018, which could provide a fillip to global trade growth in the near term. Given the betterthan‐expected start to the year, we have made no change to our 2018 China GDP growth forecast (of 6.4%) despite the probable negative effects of trade measures. ▀ Meanwhile, most advanced economies remain in the late expansionary stage of the cycle. And those that show signs of slowing, such as the Eurozone, are doing so from multi‐year highs. While we have nudged down our 2018 Eurozone GDP growth forecast slightly to 2.2%, the pace is expected to remain well above trend. We judge the impact of US tariffs and counter‐measures on the US economy to be subdued and have lowered our GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 by just 0.1pp. ▀ For now, we see further solid growth for the world economy this year even in the environment of rising protectionism. While there is a risk that a further escalation of trade tensions could trigger a sharper slowdown in global GDP growth, we still see the risks of a full‐blown and damaging trade war as limited and the chances of protectionism leading to recessions as smaller still.

Overview: Market falls overstate loss of momentum ▀ Financial market moves in recent months suggest that there is increasing concern about a substantial global growth slowdown or even a recession. But we continue to see this as an over‐reaction to the weakening economic data; while the downside risks to the global GDP growth outlook have clearly risen, our baseline forecast for 2019 is little changed at 2.7%, down from 3% in 2018. ▀ Recent economic news confirms that the Q3 economic soft patch appears to have spilled over into Q4, particularly in the industrial sector which has seen a broad‐based loss of momentum in many economies coinciding with a further slowdown in global trade growth. But while surveys of service sector activity have also moderated, the falls have been rather less abrupt, suggesting that overall global GDP growth is slowing albeit not alarmingly so. ▀ On balance, we think that the weaker data do not provide compelling evidence that global growth is slowing more sharply than our December forecast. Although the financial market sell‐off and associated tightening in financial conditions will impinge on growth, this may at least be partly offset by weaker inflation in response to lower oil prices, now seen at US$61pb in 2019. This, combined with the continued strength of labour markets and the likelihood of further moderate wage growth, points to a further period of solid household spending growth. ▀ Nonetheless, the risk of a sharper slowdown has risen. Cyclical risks have increased over the past couple of years as spare capacity has diminished. And uncertainty over the economic and financial market impact of the unwinding of central balance sheets have added to the risk of policy mistakes. ▀ Although our central view is that the recent financial market correction will not morph into something rather nastier, further sustained weakness (particularly if accompanied by dollar strength) would have more significant implications for activity and could see world growth falling below the 2016 post‐crisis low of 2.4%.

Monitoring news reports and expert opinions of leading Russian business editions shows that a very difficult situation develops in the global economy and politics. There has been serious turbulence in global financial markets, which are important indicators of the health of the global economy. The fall in stock market indices of the leading Asian marketplaces, the subsequent sharp decline similar to indicators on the stock exchanges in Europe and North America, the devaluation of yuan, the depreciation of the ruble against the world currencies, in general, lower exchange rates of raw-materials economies relative to the US dollar, the fall in commodity prices - these and many other factors indirectly indicate a slowdown in global growth and a change in investor sentiment occurring before our eyes. Deep integration into global economic processes and high dependence of the financial result of the Russian vertically integrated oil companies on the price of liquid hydrocarbons in international markets impact the functioning of the drilling companies, by requirements being changed by higher-level organizations. On the one hand, this is the increase in efficiency and on the other hand optimization of costs. Aims and Objectives Consider the concept of «system to support management decisions», its composition and possible role in improving the adaptability of drilling companies in the oil industry with account for state of the global and Russian economies. Methods Theoretical research, data analysis, formalization, abstraction, classification, deduction, induction. Results The basic components of an effective system to support management decision-making were identified, the factors that must be considered as influencing management decisions were classified, general formulae were offered for calculating the rate of oil sector drilling companies’ reaction to changes in the environment, and the importance of understanding the role of staff in business adaptation was emphasized. Conclusion Availability of relevant information, its correct interpretation and subsequent use, the understanding of the organization and the functioning laws of human consciousness, as well as the significance of the personnel quality in taking management decisions are critical for improving the adaptability of drilling companies.

Overview: Global GDP growth to fall to a post‐crisis low ▀ The latest flare‐up in US‐China trade tensions and ongoing industrial weakness are adding to concerns about the global economic outlook. As a result, we have again lowered our world GDP growth forecasts slightly, to 2.6% in 2019 – the weakest since the global financial crisis – and then 2.7% in 2020, both well below the average of 3.0% in the preceding five years. ▀ In July, the global manufacturing PMI remained below the 50 no‐change level for the third month running and survey‐based measures of firms’ export orders continued their downward trend. Q3 will probably be another weak quarter for trade and industry. ▀ Japan's trade restrictions on Korea highlight the risk of trade tensions creeping beyond the US‐China frontline. Accordingly, we have scaled back both our world trade and investment forecasts. Both are now expected to record very weak rises in 2019 and then stage only modest recoveries in 2020. ▀ Although the recent softening in service sector surveys points to manufacturing woes spilling over to the more domestically‐focused sectors of the economy, consumer indicators overall have been fairly resilient. Our advanced economy consumer confidence indicator climbed to a 2019 high in July, while retail sales were strong at the end of Q2. We expect solid household spending to offset weakness elsewhere and to limit the scale of the slowdown in global growth. ▀ A clear downside risk to our forecast is that the US carries out its threat to impose 10% tariffs on a further $300bn of imports from China. The intention may be to railroad Beijing into agreeing a deal, but the persistent moving of the goal posts may make it disinclined to negotiate. We estimate that the tariff hikes could lower global GDP growth by just 0.1pp in 2020, but the impact could be larger if it has substantial confidence effects or leads to a significant tightening in financial conditions.

Since the beginning of 2020, there have been crisis phenomena around the world due to the global slowdown in economic growth and the introduction of quarantine due to the coronavirus pandemic. In this situation, the most vulnerable are developing countries with a small margin of safety, which, unfortunately, also applies to Ukraine, whose economy is open and highly dependent on external markets.
 Due to the slowdown in the growth of the global economy, the situation in one of the main export industries of Ukraine – industry is deteriorating first of all. The European Union has become one of the important export markets for Ukraine’s industrial products in recent years, which has raised the issue of shaping a relevant state industrial policy in today’s challenging environment. The purpose of the article is to determine the directions of formation and implementation of state industrial policy in the conditions of European integration of Ukraine in modern conditions. In 2020, due to the economic crisis and the pandemic of the coronavirus, the Ukrainian industry may lose even more due to low demand for ferrous metals in world markets, including in EU countries.
 The Agreement on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Products is a way of eliminating technical barriers to trade between Ukraine and the EU. The Agreement on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Products is a type of mutual recognition agreement that requires a partner country to align its legislation, practices and infrastructure with EU rules.It is envisaged that in the sectors covered by this Agreement, Ukrainian exporters will be able to label their products with the CE mark and to sell them freely on the EU market without additional EU certification. Potentially, the Agreement on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Products could cover up to a fifth of Ukraine’s exports to the EU, notably mechanical engineering products. The formation and implementation of state industrial policy in the conditions of European integration of Ukraine should take place using the following algorithm:1. Study of the new EU Regulation 2019/1020 of 20.06.2019 on market surveillance and conformity of products and elaboration of relevant amendments to the legislation of Ukraine.2. Concentration of the function of legal coordination of draft regulatory acts (including technical regulations) aimed at implementing the Association Agreement and preparation for the Agreement on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Products in one state instance, equipped with specialized personnel with adequate knowledge of EU law and languages.3. Strengthening the requirements for the accreditation and oversight process for accredited bodies, as well as the process of designating and monitoring conformity assessment bodies to ensure that their technical competence is adequate and to prevent fraud and the use of fraudulent practices.4. In the absence of a rapid prospect of concluding an Agreement on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Products, the harmonization of procedures and requirements that are too burdensome for exporters and importers, first and foremost.5. Paying particular attention to capacity building of state market surveillance authorities.6. Raising awareness of business entities and enhancing the role of business associations in raising such awareness.7. Increasing the EU’s interest in providing Ukraine with effective technical assistance for the development of legislation and the proper functioning of quality infrastructure and market surveillance authorities.
 
 Introduce the position of Deputy Prime Minister for Industry and launch support programs for the real economy.
 
 Thus, Ukraine’s further integration with the European Union is largely linked to the formulation and implementation of relevant industrial policy, which should be to continue reforming all sectors of the economy, in particular, to modernize the industrial complex. And the signing of the Agreement on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Products in the three priority sectors («industrial visa waiver») in the medium term should become one of the main foreign economic priorities of Ukraine’s European integration in the face of the current challenges of today.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine global monetary economic growth with free trade. It develops a multi‐country monetary growth model with capital accumulation to provide some insights into complexity of economic globalization with free trade and financial markets.Design/methodology/approachThe real aspects of the model is based on the neoclassical growth theory and monetary aspects of the model are based on the money‐in‐utility approach. The behavior of households is based on an alternative approach. The paper shows that the dynamics of the J‐country world economy can be described by 2J‐dimensional differential equations.FindingsThis paper simulates equilibrium and motion of the global economy with three, developed, newly industrializing, and developing countries and Cobb‐Douglas production functions. As the global monetary economic system is unstable, the perfectly competitive world economy may either experience unlimited growth or economic crisis. Because of the choice of the initial conditions and the parameters, the simulation demonstrates a situation of global economic declination. This paper also demonstrates, for instance, that the global economy worsens off as the developed economy reduces its propensity to save or increases its inflation policy.Social implicationsThis paper also tries to provide some possible implications of our model for the recent economic crisis. A policy implication of the results is that as global economies with free trade and financial markets are possibly structurally unstable and the global economy may suffer from economic declination, government interventions, and co‐operation among countries are necessary for global sustainable development.Originality/valueThe paper offers insights into the linkage between national monetary policies and global economic growth.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe imbalances in the global economy and intensified stock market turmoil worldwide. Based on Fama-French five-factor model, this paper studies Chinas A-share market changes before and after the epidemic. The stocks treated by ST (special treatment) and * ST (delisting warning) are screened, excluding companies and banking stocks with shortlisting time. The equities are finally divided into groups using the two-by-three grouping approach. According to the median of the total market value of stocks, the entire sample is separated into two categories: modest market value (S) and large market value (B). The samples are classified into three categories based on the book-to-market ratio's 30% and 70% quantiles: high (H), medium (N), and low (L). Comparing the different times of the impact of the five factors on stock earnings is conducive to explaining the changes in the factors affecting the stock price of listed companies before and after the epidemic. It is possible to analyze which factors have declined and fluctuated after the epidemic, resulting in a decline in stock prices, a slowdown in the growth of listed companies, or even a recession. The analysis of the five-factor model can clarify which factors have led to the decline in stock prices after the beginning of the epidemic, which is conducive to the formulation of related policies and plans by listed companies and makes up for the decline in stock prices and the slowdown in company growth caused by the corresponding decline, which has apparent practical value.

Are We Already in a Global Recession?

The global economy is showing new signs of weakness…The world economy is estimated to have expanded by 3.1 per cent in 2015, over half a percentage point less than had been projected a year earlier. If current policy responses are maintained, the outlook is for continued economic weakening, posing significant challenges to enterprises and workers. Indeed, over the next two years, the world economy is projected to grow by only around 3 per cent, significantly less than before the advent of the global crisis.The continuing slowdown in economic growth is being driven by weakness in emerging and developing countries. China is facing a pronounced slowdown. This, combined with other factors, has contributed to a steep decline in commodity prices, particularly those related to energy. This situation has, in turn, affected large emerging economy commodity exporters, such as Brazil and the Russian Federation, which have entered a period of recession. The benefits accruing to net commodity importers have been insufficient to offset the decline affecting exporters. Another sign of economic weakness is the fact that global trade, which had typically expanded twice as fast as the global economy, is now growing in line with or at a lower rate than global growth.

PIP: The case of Cuba provides social scientists with reasonably good information on urbanization policies and their implementation in 1 developing country committed to socialism. The demographic context is considered, and Cuban efforts to eliminate the rural-urban contradiction and to redefine the role of Havana are described. The impact of these policies is analyzed in terms of available data on urbanization patterns since January 1959 when the revolutionaries marched into Havana. Prerevolutionary urbanization trends are considered. Fertility in Cuba has declined simultaneously with mortality and even more rapidly. Projections assume a 1.85% annual growth rate, resulting in a population of nearly 15 million by the year 2000. Any estimate regarding the future trend in population growth must depend on prognosis of general living conditions and of specific government policies regarding contraception, abortion, female labor force participation, and child care facilities. If population growth in Cuba has been substantial, but less dramatic than that of many other developing countries, urban growth presents a similar picture. Cuba's highest rate of growth of the population living in urban centers with a population over 20,000, in any intercensal period during the 20th century, was 4.1%/year for 1943-1953. It dropped to 3.0% in the 1953-1970 period. Government policies achieved a measure of success in stemming the tide of rural-urban migration, but the aims of the revolutionary leadership went further. The objective was for urban dwellers to be involved in agriculture, and the living standards of the rural population were to be raised to approximate those of city dwellers. The goal of urbanizing the countryside found expression in a program designed to construct new small towns which could more easily be provided with services. A slowdown in the growth of Havana, and the concomitant weakening of its dominant position, was intended by the revolutionary leadership. Offical policies have been enunciated that connect the reduction in the dominance of Havana with the slowdown in urban growth and the urbanization of the countryside. Evidence is presented which suggests achievements along all of these dimensions, but by 1970 they were, as yet, quite limited.

The article analyzes main trends, problems and factors of economic and social development of the modern world, including the countries of the West, East and South, which during the last decades have been (and with high probability will be) massively increasing their role in the world economy and politics. However, despite the substantial progress, which has been rec-orded in economically advanced and developing countries, based on achievements of the 4th industrial revolution, as well as economic, institutional and social reforms, economic growth in them (to the extent that we can gauge it) is actually decelerating, financial and economic dis-proportions are aggravating, ecological and social contradictions and general crisis of world governance are increasing.The current slowdown in economic growth in the world is explained by some economists as a result of increased welfare, that is, the achievement of a high degree of saturation of markets in a high personal incomes environment. In the medium term, the increase of growth rate is possible due to replacement of the production apparatus. It is stimulated by the devel-opment of new technologies. In addition, in developing countries, modernization can acceler-ate economic growth.The slowdown in global economic growth is taking place alongside with the shift of the world economic center to the countries of East Asia, China, in the first place. In the short term, the global economic crisis is predicted by those who focus on the stock market, but the analysis of macroeconomic indicators does not promise a strong recession in 2020.

Incidence rates of kidney cancer vary in global standards more than tenfold, the highest worldwide rates are repeatedly registered in the Czech Republic (hereafter CR) and in other geographically neighbouring countries in Central Europe, including the Slovak Republic (hereafter SR). The aim of the study was to analyse the changes in time trends of incidence and mortality from kidney cancer in two geographically close countries (CR and SR) and to compare detected differences with the worldwide data. In spite of high rates of incidence and its global growth in analyses in 1980 - 2005, the character of its progress in time was changed in both countries. While in 1980 - 1994 the incidence of kidney cancer in males and females in both analysed countries increased significantly, after 1994 (to 2005) stagnation in males in SR and significant slowdown of its growth in males in CR were reported. In females in SR after 1994 significant slowdown of the incidence growth was reported and in CR there was even its non-significant fall. Mortality trend in both sexes in both countries in 1980-2005 was slower than the incidence. After 1994 (to 2005) in males in SR statistically non-significant slowdown of mortality growth was reported, in CR it was statistically significant fall of mortality rates. In women after 1994 (to 2005) statistically non-significant decrease was reported, in CR the decrease was significant. The increase of total incidence of the disease is not explained only by the growth of asymptomatic localized tumors due to high quality diagnostic methods, but it likely reflects actual growth of new cases of the disease. Assumed partial cause of the mortality stabilization and slowdown of the incidence growth after its previous culmination in 1994 is the decline of smoking and obesity prevalence in the last decades in men, although this fact does not reflect situation in women. More striking mortality decrease in CR in comparison with SR might be influenced by potentially more radical surgical therapy (rate of the amount of surgery within primary therapy according to the data in National Cancer Registry CR raises, in SR the data are not available) and by more significant increase of the disease rate in the clinical stages I and II in CR (in SR only short-time data are available).

The global economic outlook remains fragile amid a highly challenging environment. While some of the clouds looming over the global economy may be lifting, the baseline outlook is subject to a high degree of uncertainty. Task Force members are projecting a slowdown in global growth in 2023, but with a wider forecast range compared to the past. On a market exchange rate basis, 2023 global growth forecasts by Task Force members range from 1.9 per cent to 2.4 per cent, following growth of 3.0 per cent in 2022. Downside risks include more persistent-than-expected inflation leading to a wage-price spiral, a sharp and disorderly tightening of global financial conditions and a further escalation of geopolitical tensions.

SUMMARYThe political authority of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) was bolstered in the third quarter of 2015 by a cabinet reshuffle, his coalition's gaining a parliamentary majority, and several foreign-policy developments. Indonesia's request to rejoin OPEC, for example, after having left in 2008, seemed more about international relations than oil prices, while official visits to the Middle East and the United States allowed Jokowi to project his presidency on the international stage. He still faces resistance from within his own party, however.Jokowi's politically bold reshuffle of economic ministers in August soon yielded a range of policy announcements. In September and October, his government introduced its first substantial set of reforms—a number of economic policy packages intended, among other things, to attract investment and stimulate domestic demand. If even half of these policies are put in place, the impact on Indonesia's economy should be tangible.Few countries have escaped the effects of falling global commodity prices and China's growth slowdown. At 4.7%, year on year, in the third quarter Indonesia's rate of economic growth again fell short of the government's target. Slowing growth and a negative outlook have lowered market expectations and weakened the rupiah, which is also burdened by the large outstanding external debt held by corporate borrowers. Indonesia's real effective exchange rate has recently begun to depreciate, however, which may stimulate exports. Growth prospects will also improve if the substantial increase in capital and infrastructure spending allocated in the state budget is realised.Against this backdrop, we focus on what has happened to poverty and inequality in Indonesia since Jokowi took office. The distributional impacts of the current macroeconomic climate are likely to be hardest felt by the poor. Indonesia is well known for its record on poverty reduction, but between September 2014 and March 2015 the share of the population in poverty increased, even though economic growth was close to 5.0%. Slowing growth, rising food prices, the falling real wages of farmers, and the delayed disbursement of fuel-price compensation all had an effect. Such impacts may be mitigated in the medium term by Jokowi's budget reallocations to infrastructure, if realised, and his expansion of social spending.