Abstract
The economy of Slovakia experienced a turning point in the 1st half of 2008 and entered a phase of decline. The negative impacts of the global economic crisis became evident in the 2nd half of 2008 and led into a recession in the 1st quarter of 2009. The composite leading indicator was originally intended for forecasting of business cycle turning points between the decline and growth phases. The aim of this paper is to transform the qualitative information from composite leading indicator into quantitative forecast and verify whether the beginning of recession in Slovakia could have been identified in advance. The ARIMAX and error correction models are used for the composite reference series and GDP forecasts respectively. The final result shows that the composite leading indicator is useful not only for identifying turning points, but also for the prediction of recession phase.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
