Abstract
Under the European FP7 SNOWBALL project (2014–2017), the island of Santorini was used as a case study to validate a procedure to assess the possible multiple cascading effects caused by volcanic eruptions. From January 2011 to April 2012, the area was affected by low to moderate (Mw <3.2) seismic shaking, which caused concern regarding a possible volcanic eruption that ultimately failed to materialize. Assuming the worst-case scenario of a sub-Plinian eruption, this study provides insights into the approach adopted by the SNOWBALL project to identify the most critical areas (hot spots) for slope stability. Geological field surveys, thematic maps, and geomorphological data on aerial photos and landform interpretation were adopted to assess the static susceptibility. The eruption scenario is related to two different phenomena: a pre-eruption earthquake (Mw 5.2) and the subsequent ash fallout deposition following the prevailing winds. Landslide susceptibility in seismic conditions was assessed through the HAZUS approach and the estimate of Newmark displacements (u), while the critical areas for ash fallout mobilization were assessed adopting empirical relationships. The findings are summarized in a scenario map reporting the most critical areas and the infrastructures most vulnerable to such phenomena.
Highlights
Many areas of the world are affected by several different types of hazards, which can occur individually or in combination
The identification of the most critical areas and infrastructures for slope stability is assessed through the approach of overlaying thematic maps and verification in for the slope field
The European FP7 project SNOWBALL (2014–2017) considered the island of Santorini as a case study to validate a procedure for the assessment of possible multiple cascading effects caused by volcanic eruptions
Summary
Many areas of the world are affected by several different types of hazards, which can occur individually or in combination. The relationships between the various types of hazard may range from interactions to cascades and domino effects [2,3,4,5,6] In such cases, assessment and mitigation of the risk at a given location requires non-conventional approaches that allow for possible interactions among the hazards. Assessment and mitigation of the risk at a given location requires non-conventional approaches that allow for possible interactions among the hazards This has given rise to several loss estimation methodologies, such as HAZUS [7] for hurricanes, earthquakes and floods, PTVA in its updated version for multi-hazards [8], and the method proposed by [9] to assess multi-hazards due to climate variations and so on. The identification of areas likely to be most affected by a certain hazard is based on spatial analyses carried out by geographic information systems (GIS), while forecasting capability will enable stakeholders to develop plans and strategies for reducing the risk
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