Abstract

AbstractUsing a broad panel of advanced economies, we document that increases in GDP per capita are associated with a systematic shift in the composition of value added to sectors that are intensive in high-skill labour, a process we label as skill-biased structural change. It follows that further development in these economies leads to an increase in the relative demand for skilled labour. We develop a quantitative two-sector model of this process as a laboratory to assess the sources of the rise of the skill premium in the U.S. and a set of ten other advanced economies, over the period 1977 to 2005. For the U.S., we find that the sector-specific skill neutral component of technical change accounts for 18–24% of the overall increase of the skill premium due to technical change, and that the mechanism through which this component of technical change affects the skill premium is via skill-biased structural change.

Highlights

  • The substantial increase in the wages of high-skilled workers relative to low-skilled workers is one of the most prominent secular trends in the US and other advanced economies

  • If the process of development is systematically associated with a shift in the composition of value added toward sectors that are intensive in highskill workers, the relative demand for high-skilled workers will increase, even if development is driven by the skill-neutral component of technical change

  • The procedure described in the previous section implies that our calibrated model will perfectly account for the observed change in the skill premium between 1977 and 2005

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Summary

Introduction

The substantial increase in the wages of high-skilled workers relative to low-skilled workers is one of the most prominent secular trends in the US and other advanced economies. If (as we show is the case ) the process of development is systematically associated with a shift in the composition of value added toward sectors that are intensive in highskill workers, the relative demand for high-skilled workers will increase, even if development is driven by the skill-neutral component of technical change. In the third step we use our model to decompose the overall increase of the skill premium into four components: one due to the change in the relative supply of high-skill workers, a second due to skill-biased technical change, a third due to sectorspecific skill-neutral change, and a fourth term that represents the interaction between the two types of technical change.

Skill-Biased Structural Change
Data Sources
Defining the Skill-Intensive Sector
Structural Change Mechanisms
Summary
Theoretical Framework
Equilibrium
Structural Change and the Skill Premium
Calibration
Calibrating Technology Parameters
Calibrating Preference Parameters
Calibrating ρ
Results
Sources of Change in the Skill Premium
Sources of Structural Change
Comparison With the Literature
Sensitivity Exercises
Consumption Value Added vs Investment Value Added
Allowing for Trade
Mismeasurement of Relative Price Changes
Endogenizing the Supply of Skills
Cross-Country Analysis
Conclusion

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