Situational Analysis of Flood and Drought in Rwanda

Abstract

In this paper, a situational analysis of flood and drought in Rwanda were assessed using AQUEDUCT Global Flood Analyzer based on the population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and urban damage for current and future projections (2030). In order to estimate future changes, three scenarios from: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report which represents climate change and socioeconomic change scenarios respectively were employed. Data from 1981-2010 were used to determine the average monthly precipitation for current years and IPCC scenario A2 was employed to generate datasets that predict the average monthly precipitation from 2011-2100 using Meteonorm 7 software. A 10-year flood protection level was employed to ascertain the rate of urban damage, its effects on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Population at risk. The study revealed that, Rwanda has more than 20% probability of inland flooding in any given year; a 10-year flood has a 10% probability of occurring in any given year and could cause roughly $6.1 million urban damage; $865.6 million affected GDP and 837.2 thousand affected population, if there is no flood protection. Flood and drought events cannot be totally eradicated but with mitigation approach and preparedness before its occurrence: social and economic losses can be minimized.