Abstract
In recent years, several tools and models have been developed and used for the design and analysis of future national energy systems. Many of these models focus on the integration of various renewable energy resources and the transformation of existing fossil-based energy systems into future sustainable energy systems. The models are diverse and often end up with different results and recommendations. This paper analyses this diversity of models and their implicit or explicit theoretical backgrounds. In particular, two archetypes are defined and compared. On the one hand, the prescriptive investment optimisation or optimal solutions approach. On the other hand the analytical simulation or alternatives assessment approach. Awareness of the dissimilar theoretical assumption behind the models clarifies differences between the models, explains dissimilarities in results, and provides a theoretical and methodological foundation for understanding and interpreting results from the two archetypes.
Highlights
Climate change is forcing global society to change the energy system away from use of fossil fuels [1]
This paper has focused on energy system analysis models meant for the analysis of future sustainable energy solutions at the national level
This paper has focused onrenewable energy system analysisasmodels meant for the analysis future integration of various energy resources well as the transformation of existingofenergy sustainable energy solutions at the national level
Summary
Climate change is forcing global society to change the energy system away from use of fossil fuels [1]. The design of future national renewable and sustainable energy strategies calls for energy system analysis models able to model the complex interdependencies and temporal characteristics of such. In the scientific literature most papers have focused on the quantitative aspects of these models and methodologies while less attention has been devoted to the social science and more qualitative issues of the design of sustainable energy strategies [2]. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the role of energy system modelling in the transition away from fossil fuels in democratic societies. The basic points are illustrated with examples from the Danish energy transition debate, which has been going on since the 1970s
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