Simulation Research on the Role of Energy Revolution in the Rise of China’s Five Central Provinces

Abstract

China’s energy revolution strategy serves as both a driving force and a hindrance to the rise of central China. Based on the six-dimensional data of GDP, industrial structure, urbanization, energy efficiency, per capita income and energy consumption of the five central provinces, this research sets three levels of growth rate, namely high, medium and low growth rates. With GDP growth as the key sub-scenario, a total of 13 rising models from SE11 to SE34 are established to simulate the high-quality rise of the five central provinces against the background of energy revolution. The results indicate that the path of high-quality rise of central China varies from SE11 to SE25, that is, from high-speed economic growth to benchmark growth model. For the model of rapid economic development, the industrial structure will be upgraded and the energy efficiency will be maximized. With the energy revolution, the emission of carbon dioxide will reach its peak in 2020. However, the adjustment of industrial structure promoting energy efficiency will be challenging, which will also cost a huge amount of energy. For the benchmark growth model, GDP growth rate is lower than that of the rapid development model, but the energy consumption is reduced, and the adjustment of industrial structure and the improvement of energy efficiency is less challenging. Improving energy efficiency has a higher effect on energy saving than upgrading industrial structure. Through energy revolution, the proportion of renewable energy will reach 23.06% in 2035, and consequently the emission of carbon dioxide will reach its peak two years ahead of schedule.