Simulation of the atmospheric transport and deposition on a local/meso- and regional scale after hypothetical accidents at the Kola nuclear power plant

Abstract

An accident at the Kola nuclear power plant could cause a large release of radioactivity into the atmosphere. To illustrate possible effects on the environment, potential atmospheric transport and deposition are calculated for two different scales—the local/meso- and the regional, using two different models. A 3-dimensional meso-scale model, developed at the Kola Science Centre, and suitable for distances out to a few hundred kilometres, has been used for the local/meso-scale, and a model system based on the MATHEW/ADPIC code, for the regional scale. Some consequences for the population have been estimated by using the MACCS model. Calculated aerial radionuclide activity concentrations, ground contamination and consequences for the population of the Euro-Arctic Barents region are discussed for two scenarios. The results for the local scale show a considerable influence on the radionuclide ground contamination pattern from the presence of precipitation. The significance of wet deposition is confirmed by the results for the regional scale which also emphasise the importance of having access to high quality weather predictions in emergency response organisations. The importance of the specific Arctic nutrition pathways, not included in this study, is discussed. It is important to make further studies in order to investigate the significance of these pathways.