Simulation of precipitation time series using tree-rings, earlywood vessel features, and artificial neural network

Abstract

Precipitation forecasting plays a key role in natural resource management, agriculture management, and water requirement provision. Hence, dendroclimatology methods and artificial neural network (ANN) are used to estimate precipitation values in the past times. Moreover, a geographic information system (GIS) can be applied as a tool to demonstrate the spatial variation of precipitation. In this study, earlywood vessel features and tree-rings of Siberian elm species were used to simulate precipitation. The vessel features, the tree-ring extent, and the secondary data of climatologic station from the different sites were studied. At first, cross-dating and standardization of the tree-rings and vessels were performed. Then, time series analysis was done. In the next step, the relations between vessel chronologies and tree-rings with the precipitation were defined. The input parameters were selected tree-ring width and vessel features for the modeling, whereas precipitation of the growing season was selected as the output. The model or network was trained and verified by taking a case study of Fomanat plain (northern part of Iran). The results showed that the combinatory usage of vessel features and tree-rings extent in precipitation simulating can increase simulation capability. Further, different isohyets were generated using the simulated precipitation values, an interpolation technique in a GIS system. The results showed that the highest precipitation and the lowest precipitation have occurred in 1926 and 1986 during the last century.