Abstract
The Tangjiashan Quake Lake is the largest quake lake triggered by the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake that happened on May 12, 2008 in China, posing high risk of catastrophic flash flood hazards to downstream human life and properties. A physics-based numerical simulation approach is proposed for real-time prediction of dam breach development of the Tangjiashan Quake Lake in the case of emergency treatment. Bed erosion and lateral development of the dam breach are represented through accounting for the underlying physics including selective sediment transport and gravitational collapse. Conceptualized breach erosion model that involves few parameters enables quick calibration based on the monitored hydrological data in emergency analysis where fully geotechnical information about the barrier dam is not available. The process of dam breach development is found to be nonlinear in cascades due to the combined effects of headcutting and bank collapse. The agreement between the simulation results and the observed data shows the applicability of the present approach for emergency analysis of quake lakes. Limitations will arise in the situation where the soil composition of barrier dam is significantly inhomogeneous. Incorporation of circular arc failure for cohesive soil and lateral seepage in bank slope will also enhance its applicability to complex situations.
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