Abstract
This paper analyses the evolution of COVID-19 in Cameroon over the period March 6-April 2020 using SIR models. Specifically, we 1) evaluate the basic reproduction number of the virus, 2) determine the peak of the infection and the spread-out period of the disease, and 3) simulate the interventions of public health authorities. Data used in this study is obtained from the Cameroonian Public Health Ministry. The results suggest that over the identified period, the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Cameroon is about 1.5, and the peak of the infection should have occurred at the end of May 2020 with about 7.7% of the population infected. Furthermore, the implementation of efficient public health policies could help flatten the epidemic curve.
Highlights
The new coronavirus (COVID-19) started in Wuhan, China last November, presenting pneumonia-like symptoms in patients
The present paper aims to analyze the evolution of the coronavirus disease in Cameroon
Starting from the natural evolution of the epidemic in the first days of propagation in the country, a SIR model was applied to the observed data
Summary
The new coronavirus (COVID-19) started in Wuhan, China last November, presenting pneumonia-like symptoms in patients. The government decided to publish daily reports regarding the evolution of the disease including the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, the number of deaths due to the virus, and the number of recoveries via public declaration. These daily declarations ended on April 10, 2020, which is why our dataset covers from March 6 to April 10. It shows an exponential increase in the number of confirmed cases. On the last day of our period of observation, the figure shows that the total number of recoveries from COVID-19 in Cameroon is 98, around 8 times more than the total number of deaths observed on the same date
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