Simulating the impacts of land-use changes on non-point source pollution in Lugu Lake watershed

Abstract

Protection of the water quality of Lugu Lake is important because it is a unique geographic and cultural resource. Not only point source pollution but also non-point source pollution contribute to degradation of water quality. A GIS-NPS model, with long-term hydrologic impact assessment (L-THIA), was used to evaluate long-term implications of land-use change impacts on non-point source (NPS) pollution. The land-use patterns of 1995 and 2005 were analysed to determine the changes in Lugu Lake watershed. A 30-year (1974–2003) precipitation dataset was used to estimate mean annual surface runoff and NPS pollutant loads. The contributions of different land-use categories to average annual runoff and NPS pollutant production were assessed with a unit contribution index (UCI). Results show loss of agricultural land (by 44.9%), while forest, grass/pasture and residential land increased to different degrees from 1995 to 2005. At the same time, annual average NPS pollutants, TN, TP, TSS and BOD loads all decreased, while heavy metal lead increased by 6.87%. The UCI formulated in this research was a more useful method to assess land-use impact on NPS pollutants than simple investigations of the percentage land-use change. Agricultural and residential land changes had more impact on NPS pollutants and were identified as the main source types. Suggestions on regulating land uses and management proposals for protecting lake water quality in Lugu Lake watershed are made.