Short-term traffic flow forecasting based on clustering and feature selection

Abstract

Traffic flow forecasting is an important issue for the application of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). How to improve the traffic flow forecasting precision is a crucial problem. Traffic models in different time sections have great differences. The forecasting precision could be improved if the traffic flow forecasting models were built on different time sections respectively. Traffic flow forecasting usually is real-time and too many forecasting variables will reduce the real-time performance. So the selection of the most informative forecasting variable combination is significant. It can save computation cost and improve forecasting precision. In this paper, information bottleneck theory based on extended entropy is used to partition traffic flow of a day into different time sections. Corresponding to each time section, feature selection based on mutual information is generalized to regression problems and is used to select the most informative variable combination. Selected variables are input to support vector machines (SVM) for traffic flow forecasting. Bayesian inference is used to determine the kernel parameters of SVM. The efficiency of the method is illustrated through analyzing the traffic data of Jinan urban transportation.