Short term load forecasting using Multiple Linear Regression

Abstract

this paper we present an investigation for the short term (up 24 hours) load forecasting of the demand for the South Sulewesi's (Sulewesi Island - Indonesia) Power System, using a multiple linear regression (MLR) method. After a brief analytical discussion of the technique, the usage of polynomial terms and the steps to compose the MLR model will be explained. Report on implementation of MLR algorithm using commercially available tool such as Microsoft EXCEL <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">TM</sup> will also be discussed. As a case study, historical data consisting of hourly load demand and temperatures of South Sulawesi electrical system will be used, to forecast the short term load. The results will be presented and analysed potential for improvement using alternative methods is also discussed.