Shipping network disruption, vulnerability and resilience amidst geopolitical tensions

Climate extremes are threatening transportation infrastructures and hence require new methods to address their vulnerability and improve their resilience. However, existing studies have yet to examine the climate impacts on transportation networks systematically rather than independently assessing the infrastructures at a component level. Therefore, it is crucial to configure alternative shipping routes from a systematic perspective to reduce climate vulnerabilities and optimise the resilience of the whole shipping network. This paper aims to assess the global shipping network focusing on climate resilience by a methodology that combines climate risk indicators, centrality analysis and ship routing optimisation. The methodology is designed for overviewing the climate vulnerability of the current and future scenarios for comparison. First, a multi-centrality assessment defines the global shipping hubs and network vulnerabilities. Secondly, a shipping model is built for finding the optimal shipping route between ports, considering the port disruption days caused by climate change (e.g. extreme weather) based on the climate vulnerability analysis result from the first step. It contributes to a new framework combining the global and local seaport climate vulnerabilities. Furthermore, it recommends changing shipping routes by a foreseeable increase in port disruptions caused by extreme weather for climate adaptation.

Container transportation has the advantages of standardization, high efficiency, and high safety, which are essential for promoting the development of the world economy and trade. Emergencies such as severe weather, public health incidents, and social security incidents can negatively affect the operational reliability of the container shipping network. To ensure the network security and high-quality operation of container shipping, a double-layer coupled container transportation network is first described to analyze the evolution of the container shipping network and the risk propagation dynamics of operation participants. On this basis, a cascade failure model of the container shipping network considering risk level is constructed. To evaluate the vulnerability of the container shipping network, the transmission mechanism of cascade failure effects of the container shipping network under different emergency development trends and the evolution law and influence path of the container shipping network structure are both analyzed. Finally, we empirically studied the container shipping network in China and the United States, and characteristic parameters of the China–U.S. container shipping network are calculated and analyzed. The model’s validity is verified through practical cases and model simulation results, and the cascading failure process of the container shipping network in China and the United States under three types of attacks is simulated. Suggestions are provided for effective improvement in the vulnerability of the container shipping network under every kind of contingency.

This paper presents a framework for the resilience assessment of maritime shipping networks by quantifying its recovery performance under natural hazards. The vulnerability of the maritime shipping network is measured according to the variation of network efficiency and the relative size of the largest connected subgraph in the face of the disruption of transportation systems (shutdown of ports). The service performance of the maritime shipping network is indicated by the global network efficiency, and the resilience of maritime shipping network is associated to the network performance loss triangle considering the whole process from a partial disruption to full recovery. The proposed resilience assessment method is applied to a container shipping network of the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) under the storm risks. Two recovery strategies, which are random recovery strategy and multi-centrality based recovery strategy, are adopted respectively, and the recovery performance of the container shipping network under different strategies are comparatively analyzed. The research results can be used to not only support the identification of the weak points of the maritime transportation network along the MSR through vulnerability analysis but also provide a reference for the effective risk management of maritime transportation, so as to improve the safety and reliability of the whole system.

As an important hub in the maritime transportation system, ports are vulnerable to events such as terrorist attacks, security accidents and bad weather. The failure of port nodes to function effectively affects the connectivity and efficiency of the shipping network and impedes trade between countries. In view of this, in this paper, we constructed the Maritime Silk Road shipping network based on route data and used transmissibility and diversity to represent the resilience of the network and nodes. Then, we analyzed the variation characteristics of resilience using disruption simulation and identified 9 dominant nodes and 15 vulnerable nodes that could help to accurately determine the factors that affect the resilience of the MSR shipping network structure. The results show that the Maritime Silk Road shipping network structure is vulnerable, and the failure of ports to function has different effects on network transmissibility and diversity. In terms of node transmissibility and diversity, there are differences in the resistance of port nodes to interventions. In addition, the failure of dominant ports to function and the emergence of vulnerable ports are significant factors that weaken the resilience of the network structure. When dominant ports are interrupted, this greatly affects the resilience of the network structure. It is necessary to reduce the possibilities of the failure of dominant ports. Vulnerable ports are weaknesses in the resilience of the network structure, which weaken the ability of the network to function. The centrality of these ports should be strengthened, and their relation to regional and trans-regional links should be enriched. The research results provide a scientific basis for ensuring the structural resilience of the Maritime Silk Road shipping network.

Changes in vulnerability of global container shipping networks before and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Liner shipping network vulnerability to component disruptions: A China-Europe container flow analysis

Unwelcome exchange: International trade as a direct and indirect driver of biological invasions worldwide

Potential spatial effects of opening Arctic shipping routes on the shipping network of ports between China and Europe

Resilience characteristics of port nodes from the perspective of shipping network: Empirical evidence from China

The economies of China-Japan-Korea (CJK) are complementary, with their proximity resulting in the three countries having a high degree of interdependence with respect to trade. Currently, trade among these countries relies mainly on port-centered shipping. The development of the shipping network is integral for in-depth integration of CJK trade. This paper analyzes the overall characteristics, centrality, spatial structure, and vulnerability of the CJK shipping network using the methods of complex network analysis, blocking flow theory, and interruption and deletion of hub ports. The main findings are as follows: 1) The CJK shipping network has a small average path length and clustering coefficient, and its degree distribution follows a power-law distribution, which make the network present obvious characteristics of a Barabasi-Albert scale-free. 2) The characteristics of the multi-center point of the CJK shipping network can alleviate traffic pressure. At the same time, the network shows a clear hierarchy in the port transportation system, with cargo transport relying mainly on the ‘hub port-hub port’ connection. 3) The CJK shipping network is relatively stable. Compared with ports in Japan and Korea, the main hub ports in China have a greater impact on the stability of the shipping network, in particular those ports of the central coastal region, including Shanghai, Ningbo, and Lianyungang.

Container ports provide the primary interface where physical exchange between buyers and sellers of containerised shipping capacity can be consolidated and realised. Consequently, ports that are able to complement and add value to the objectives of shipping lines and shippers will become focal points for containerised cargo flows. To evaluate container port competition, the authors propose a practical and direct approach based on revealed preferences of shipping lines with respect to container shipping service dynamics. The container shipping networks are generated as carriers formulate their service schedules to capitalise on opportunities that are presented by evolving container trade patterns along trade routes and relative changes in the competitive profile of the ports of call. Empirical results showed that this approach offers a deeper understanding on the workings and evolution of competitive dynamics between ports, which may not be obvious from observations of port performance at the aggregated level. Benefits of the approach also include raising awareness that policy makers should be aware of the need to understand the nature, extensity and intensity of competitive relationships between ports as they craft and implement policies to correct for the actual or perceived market failures in the industry.

Many complex systems in the real world can be modeled as complex networks, which has captured in recent years enormous attention from researchers of diverse fields ranging from natural sciences to engineering. The extinction of species in ecosystems and the blackouts of power girds in engineering exhibit the vulnerability of complex networks, investigated by empirical data and analyzed by theoretical models. For studying the resilience of complex networks, three main factors should be focused on: the network structure, the network dynamics and the failure mechanism. In this review, we will introduce recent progress on the resilience of complex networks based on these three aspects. For the network structure, increasing evidence shows that biological and ecological networks are coupled with each other and that diverse critical infrastructures interact with each other, triggering a new research hotspot of “networks of networks” (NON), where a network is formed by interdependent or interconnected networks. The resilience of complex networks is deeply influenced by its interdependence with other networks, which can be analyzed and predicted by percolation theory. This review paper shows that the analytic framework for Energies 2015, 8 12188 NON yields novel percolation laws for n interdependent networks and also shows that the percolation theory of a single network studied extensively in physics and mathematics in the last 60 years is a specific limited case of the more general case of n interacting networks. Due to spatial constraints inherent in critical infrastructures, including the power gird, we also review the progress on the study of spatially-embedded interdependent networks, exhibiting extreme vulnerabilities compared to their non-embedded counterparts, especially in the case of localized attack. For the network dynamics, we illustrate the percolation framework and methods using an example of a real transportation system, where the analysis based on network dynamics is significantly different from the structural static analysis. For the failure mechanism, we here review recent progress on the spontaneous recovery after network collapse. These findings can help us to understand, realize and hopefully mitigate the increasing risk in the resilience of complex networks.

<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">Since the rapid development of the shipping and port industries in the second half of the twentieth century, the introduction of container technology has transformed cargo management systems, while simultaneously increasing the vulnerability of global shipping networks to natural disasters and international conflicts. To address this challenge, the study leverages AIS data sourced from the Vessel Traffic Data website to extract ship stop trajectories and construct a shipping network. The constructed network exhibits small-world characteristics, with most port nodes having low degree values, while a few ports possess extremely high degree values. Furthermore, the study improved the PageRank algorithm to assess the importance of port nodes and introduced reliability theory and risk assessment theory to analyze the failure risks of port nodes, providing new methods and perspectives for analyzing the reliability of the shipping network.</div></div>

Under the global background of the New Coronavirus , the container transportation market at home and abroad has been affected to a certain extent, and there have been large fluctuations. The transportation of ocean containers is extremely vulnerable to external influences .If the port nodes cannot function effectively, it will affect the connectivity and efficiency of the shipping network and hinder the trade between countries . Therefore, it is necessary and urgent to assess the vulnerability of the ocean container transportation network .In view of this, in order to explore the impact and changes of container ports along the Maritime Silk Road in recent years . In this paper , the Maritime Silk Road shipping network is constructed based on route data. On the basis of disruption simulation, the vulnerability factors affecting the Maritime Silk Road are explored from the aspects of network and node transmissibility and diversity by using complex network characteristic indicators .The results show that the overall scale of ports and routes in the Maritime Silk Road network shows an obvious expansion trend, with a significant increase. Further research shows that the shipping network structure of the Maritime Silk Road is fragile, and port failure has different effects on network transmissibility and diversity. The dominant port and the vulnerable port have different influencing mechanisms . The research results reveal the vulnerability change mechanism and main influencing factors of the Maritime Silk Road in recent years, which is of great significance for ensuring the connectivity of maritime Silk Road ports and improving the security of maritime transport network .

Container shipping networks are vulnerable to cascading failures due to seaport disruptions, underscoring the need for resilient multimodal transport systems. This study proposes a cascading failure model for the seaport–dry-port network in container transport, incorporating a multi-stage load redistribution strategy (CM-SDNCT-MLRS) to enhance network resilience. Extending the Motter–Lai framework, the model introduces multiple port state transitions and accounts for uncertainties in load redistribution, tailoring it to the cascading failure dynamics of SDNCT. Using empirical data from China’s coastal port system, the proposed MLRS dynamically reallocates loads through dry-port buffering, neighboring seaport sharing, and port skipping. This strategy effectively contains cascading failures, mitigates network efficiency losses, and protects major seaports while reducing mutual disruptions. Resilience analysis demonstrates that the network exhibits scale-free properties, with its resilience being highly sensitive to random port failures and critical port vulnerabilities. The experimental results highlight the pivotal role of dry ports, where operational numbers influence resilience more significantly than capacity. In addition, the study identifies the optimal port-skipping probability that mitigates cascading disruptions. These findings provide valuable insights for port management and logistics planning, contributing to the development of more resilient container transport networks.