Shifting Neighborhoods, Changing Crime: How Urban Context Shapes Outcomes

The social disorganization and anomie perspectives generally suggest that poverty's criminogenic effect is racially invariant. These perspectives imply that policies that alleviate economic deprivation will equally reduce rates of violent crime in neighborhoods that are predominately white and neighborhoods that are predominately black. In contrast, several social commentators have suggested that alleviating poverty will be a relatively ineffective crime reduction strategy in predominately black areas. Existing empirical research on this issue has been mostly at the city level, and almost entirely cross-sectional. The present study examines potential racial differences in the longitudinal relationship between neighborhood poverty and violent crime rates. We use iteratively reweighted least squares, a robust regression technique, to estimate race-specific effects for Cleveland census tracts, 1990–2000. The results are supportive of the racial invariance hypothesis. Reductions in neighborhood poverty appear to produce similar reductions in violent crime in white and black neighborhoods.

This study examines the relationship between earned income tax credit (EITC) laws and crime. Using data from 1999–2017, a period with 73 state EITC changes, I evaluate the effects of state‐level EITCs on violent and property crime. Estimating difference‐in‐differences models, I find that higher EITCs are associated with significant reductions in violent crime, while not affecting property crimes. Introducing high state EITC is associated with a 10.0% reduction in violent crimes, which corresponds to 40 fewer crimes per 100,000 individuals. Event study estimates confirm the negative association between EITC generosity and violent crime.

This article investigates whether and how residential loans that accrue to neighborhoods in US urban areas vary in their influence on violent and property crime across distinct race–ethnic communities, and depend on neighborhood levels of socioeconomic disadvantage. Building on recent literature on residential loans and crime, and drawing on racial structure and social disorganization perspectives, we posit that non-White and more disadvantaged neighborhoods gain more “bang” (i.e., crime reduction) for the investment dollars that they accrue than White and less disadvantaged areas. Using data from the National Neighborhood Crime Study for over 8,000 neighborhoods across 87 US cities, our multilevel analyses of violent and property crime for four types of neighborhoods revealed support for these hypotheses. While all types of neighborhoods benefit from a larger influx of residential loans, the payoff for African American and Latino areas is considerably greater than for White communities, and this is especially true for reductions in violent crime. In addition, the more disadvantaged the community, the larger the negative association between lending and both violent and property crime.

It is well established that alcohol outlets (ie, places that sell alcohol) attract crime, particularly during late-night hours. To evaluate the association of Maryland Senate Bill 571 (SB571), which reduced the hours of sale for bars/taverns in 1 Baltimore neighborhood from 6 am to 2 am to 9 am to 10 pm, with violent crime within that neighborhood. This controlled interrupted time series analysis compared the change in violent crime density within an 800-ft buffer around bars/taverns in the treatment neighborhood (ie, subject to SB571) and 2 control areas with a similar mean baseline crime rate, alcohol outlet density, and neighborhood disadvantage score in the City of Baltimore between May 1, 2018, and December 31, 2022. The interrupted time series using Poisson regression with overdispersion adjustment tested whether the violent crime density differed before vs after the policy change in the treatment neighborhood and whether this difference was localized to the treatment neighborhood. Statutory reduction of bar/tavern selling hours from 20 to 13 hours per day in the treatment neighborhood. The primary outcome was all violent crime, including homicide, robbery, aggravated and common assault, and forcible rape. Secondary outcomes were homicides and assaults. All violent crime measures summed the monthly incidents within 800 ft of bars/taverns from 8 pm to 4 am. For each outcome, a level change estimated the immediate change (first month after implementation), and a slope change estimated the sustained change after implementation (percent reduction after the first month). These level and slope changes were then compared between the treatment and control neighborhoods. The treatment neighborhood included 26 bars/taverns (mean [SD] population, 524.6 [234.6] residents), and the control neighborhoods included 41 bars/taverns (mean [SD] population per census block, 570.4 [217.4] residents). There was no immediate level change in density of all violent crimes the month after implementation of SB571; however, compared with the control neighborhoods, the slope of all violent crime density decreased by 23% per year in the treatment neighborhood after SB571 implementation (annualized incidence rate ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60-0.98; P = .04). Similar results were seen for homicides and assaults. Several sensitivity analyses supported the robustness of these results. This study's findings suggest that alcohol policies that reduce hours of sale could be associated with a reduction in violent crimes. Given these findings, SB571 may serve as a model for other cities looking to create safer neighborhoods.

Armed police and violence: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in Brazil

Schools as places of crime? Evidence from closing chronically underperforming schools

In recent years, sharp declines in violent crime rates have been recorded across major American cities. During this time period, many police departments have shifted from a traditional reactive form of policing to a community-oriented approach. It is unclear whether these changes have any causal relationship with the control or reduction in violent crime. To examine this issue, this study used the Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics survey, the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports, and city-level census data to examine the economic and political determinants of robbery and homicide rates in 164 American cities. Findings indicate that community policing had little effect on the control or the decline in violent crime. Proactive policing strategies related to arrest had an inverse effect on violent crime measures and were related to reductions in violent crime over time. Implications of these findings for criminal justice policy are discussed.

Vacant and abandoned buildings are common features in many post-industrial US cities, and are consistent predictors of violence. Demolition programs are regularly employed as an urban land use policy to stabilize housing markets and mitigate public health problems including violence. The objective of this research was to examine the effect of vacant building removals on violent and property crimes in Baltimore, MD from 2014 to 2019. We conducted a difference-in-differences analysis using spatio-temporal Bayesian mixed models on six crime types on block faces with and without building removals, before compared with after removal. There were significant reductions in total, violent crimes (with and without assaults), thefts, and burglaries on block faces with building removals relative to their controls. Total crimes decreased 1.4% per mi2 (CrI: 0.5 - 2.3%), which translates to a relative reduction ~ 2.6 total crimes per mi2 per year. The largest relative decreases in crime were found among assaults (4.9%; CrI: 3.4 - 6.3%) and violent crimes (3.0%; CrI: 1.9 - 4.1%). Building removals were associated with relative reductions in crime in Baltimore City. The relative reductions in crime, at building removals compared to at control vacant lots, were found among assaults and violent crimes, the crimes of greatest public health concern. Building removals provide co-benefits to their communities, and may be considered part of a crime reduction strategy compatible with other approaches. A systematic effort to understand the role of care for remaining vacant lots could further inform our findings, and efforts to further decrease violence and improve community health.

While a substantial body of research exists on crime in large cities, very little is known about the spread of crime to smaller cities or the morphology of crime within small cities. Research on this topic is relevant because currently, in the United States, small cities, those with less than 100,000 population, are experiencing the most rapid increases in crime, especially violent crime (Gordon, Green, Steelman, & Walker, 1992; FBI Uniform Crime Reports 1976–1993; and U.S. News, Jan. 17, 1994). Using data for selected Ohio cities and employing a case study of Lima, this paper addresses 1) the increase of crime in smaller cities in Ohio and the correlation between city size and crime, 2) the association measured by regression analysis between crime rates and socioeconomic factors found in previous research to be criminogenic in large cities, and 3) the location of violent and property crime in Lima, a small city of 45,459, and the relationship between high crime rates and socioeconomic characteristics of neighborhoods.

We show that the introduction of medical marijuana laws (MMLs) leads to a decrease in violent crime in states that border Mexico. The reduction in crime is strongest for counties close to the border (less than 350km), and for crimes that relate to drug trafficking. In addition, we find that MMLs in inland states lead to a reduction in crime in the nearest border state. Our results are consistent with the theory that decriminalization of the production and distribution of marijuana leads to a reduction in violent crime in markets that are traditionally controlled by Mexican drug trafficking organisations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Using data from 1982 to 2020, this study evaluated the impact of female employment on violent crime in Malaysia using the non-linear ARDL technique. The study found that, in the long run, lower unemployment rates were linked to lower rates of violent crime, and increased female employment facilitated a short-term reduction in violent crime. Fewer women working resulted in a short-term rise in violent crime and, over the long term, higher rates of violent crime contributed to higher rates of jail population growth. Surprisingly, higher employment rates for women were eventually linked to higher rates of violent crime. Long-term trends showed a correlation between lower employment rates for women and greater rates of violent crime. For short-term analysis, negative economic growth was linked to a rise in violent crime, and positive economic growth could lower violent crime. These results demonstrated the complex interplay between a number of variables and violent crime rates. Thus, to successfully prevent violent crime and build safer societies, it is crucial to address socioeconomic inequalities, advance gender equality, and put into practice comprehensive methods that include community assistance, employment, education, and rehabilitation.

Research SummaryBy taking advantage of data published by the Sentencing Project to analyze whether states that use life without parole (LWOP) more often experience lower violent crime rates or greater reductions in violent crime, this study is the first to empirically assess the crime‐reducing potential of LWOP sentences. The results suggest that LWOP might produce a small absolute reduction in violent crime but that it is no more effective than life with parole.Policy ImplicationsDespite reductions in the use of the death penalty, LWOP has expanded dramatically—and at a much faster rate—over the last quarter century. This expansion has come at great financial and human costs and has not been distributed equally throughout the population. As such, the public policy debate over the use of LWOP is likely to intensify. Yet, to date, there have been no empirical assessments of LWOP's efficacy to inform this debate. This study begins to fill this gap in our knowledge, and the results, if replicated, suggest that the use of LWOP should be either scaled back or eliminated.

Evaluate the relationship between neighborhood crime and the amount of daily walking by minority adults. This was a cross-sectional study of minority adult walking behavior and crime. Setting. Oakland, California was chosen as the study area because of the substantial spatial variation in levels of criminal activity combined with detailed information on walking trips. The study was restricted to minority adults who responded to the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey and lived in Oakland, California (n = 359). Data on leisure and utilitarian walking were collected through the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey and combined with crime data from the Oakland Police Department. A negative binomial model was used to test if violent, property, or quality of life crimes had significant associations with daily minutes walked, controlling for individual and neighborhood covariates. The model showed a significant negative association between violent crime and minutes walked per day (b = -.07; p = .016). Neither property nor quality of life crimes were correlated with amount of walking. Reductions in violent crime may increase opportunities for minority residents in urban areas to participate in physical activity such as walking, thereby providing another reason to pursue anticrime measures. Urban designers' efforts to increase physical activity by improving neighborhood walkability may consider violent crime prevention in their designs.

In the U.S., crime and violence are concentrated in cities that have lost industry and population due to economic disinvestment and structurally racist policies. Researchers, practitioners, and policymakers have called for community‐level approaches that reduce violence in these cities by improving unsafe physical environments, increasing social equity and cohesion, and engaging community members in neighborhood change. We tested Busy Streets Theory by examining how community‐engaged Crime Prevention through Environmental Design (CPTED) strategies implemented by a community coalition may reduce violent and violent firearm crime incidents in Flint, Michigan, a legacy city in the Midwestern U.S. We used linear mixed effects regression models to examine how the annual aggregate intensity of physical and social CPTED activities from 2015 to 2018 was associated with changes in annual violent crime levels from 2016 to 2019 for 505 street segments in Flint, MI. After adjusting for baseline violent crime density, neighborhood disadvantage, property maintenance, and spatially lagged violent crime density, we observed that higher levels of community‐engaged CPTED intensity were associated with steeper declines in violent crime density over time (β = −0.14, p < 0.001). Similarly, higher levels of community‐engaged CPTED intensity were associated with steeper declines in violent firearm crime density over time (β = −0.19, p < 0.001). The results suggest the vital role that creating busy streets through community‐engaged CPTED may play in community violence prevention.

PurposeThe majority of the previous research on hot spots policing focuses on a single set of relatively small selected experimental areas. However, given limited resources, most law enforcement agencies dispatch hot spots intervention units to several areas on a rotation basis. The purpose of this paper is to examine policing activities in hot spots to determine if the various types of crimes were affected when deployment was applied on a rotation basis.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses data from the Dallas Police Department. The differential influence of police activities, including stops, citations, and arrests, are observed against a number of aggregate crime measures (i.e. violent, property, nuisance offenses, and total index crimes). The impact of police activities have been observed for their immediate and lagged effects during the following week to measure residual deterrence effects.FindingsIt was found that the DPD's Disruption Unit's hot spots policing immediately affected violent crimes, nuisance offenses, and total index crimes, while there were no residual effects of hot spots policing. The Disruption Unit was engaged in policing activities that include motor vehicle and pedestrian stops, issuing citations, and making arrests. Among these activities, the number of police stops was the most significant factor for the reduction in violent crime and nuisance offenses.Research limitations/implicationsThe researchers use a patrol sector as a unit of analysis in order to compare the influence of various types of police activities on crime across a broader area. Future research should consider using an intermediate geographic unit of analysis (e.g. patrol beat).Originality/ValueThe paper examines the differential influence of policing activities on different types of crime around hot spots when deployment was applied on a rotation basis. Both immediate and lagged effects were investigated to find residual deterrence effects of hot spots policing.