Sensitivity Experiments on Typhoon Intensity Change Using a Highly Accurate Axisymmetric Typhoon Model

Abstract

In this study, the sensitivity experiments on typhoon intensity using an axisymmetric typhoon model developed by Yoshino et al. (2009) are performed in order to improve the accuracy of typhoon intensity predictions. The model enables us to predict the typhoon intensity change with low cost and high accuracy, owing to the use of a high-resolution axisymmetric solver. A number of sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes of typhoon's moving speed and vertical wind shear have a significant influence on the typhoon intensity change. It is found that the modification of the axisymmetric typhoon model incorporating realistic values for these sensitive parameters allows for reducing the forecast error of all typhoons in the 1999 Pacific typhoon season.