Selecting Individual and Population Models for Predicting Human Mobility

Abstract

A large plethora of models to predict human mobility exists in the literature. The problem of how to select the most appropriate model to solve a specific mobility prediction task has however received only little attention. Yet, a wrong model choice may lead to severe performance losses. In this paper, we address the model selection problem in human mobility prediction and make the following contributions. We present SELECTOR, a generic framework to explore human mobility data and compute both population models and individual models to predict human mobility. The former are models that are adapted to the characteristics of an entire population of users and can be used to overcome the cold-start problem. The latter are prediction models optimized for individual users. We present and analyze the results obtainable using SELECTOR on the Nokia data set, which is one of the largest and richest, publicly available data sets of human mobility data. We show that for many users, generic population models can be used in place of individual models with negligible performance losses. Yet for about 25 percent of the users, individual models perform at least three percentage points better than population models. Thereby, we show that the use of phone context data does not lead to significantly better performance of human mobility predictors with respect to the case in which only temporal and spatial features are used. We further observe that the population models we derive are robust against the demographics of the users and that building different population models for different periods of the day leads to performance improvements. We make SELECTOR publicly available to allow other researchers and practitioners to explore further mobility data sets and to embed the code base of SELECTOR in their applications.