Abstract
In this report the yearly probability of an earthquake of intensity IX (Mercalli scale) in any area in Italy and the error at 95% of confidence have been evaluated; for the purposes of this evaluation, Italy has been divided into small areas separated by a distance of 3' both in latitude and in longitude. To evaluate the yearly probability, two atenuation curves for volcanic earthquakes and a series of probabilistic curves for tectonic earthquakes have been determined on the basis of about 700 earthquakes, for which it has been possible to draw isoseisms. Isoprobability and equal-error curves have been drawn up on a 1: 1,000,000 scale map.
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