Seasonal scale variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and the development of a two-dimensional monsoon index

Abstract

This study investigates the seasonal scale variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), which is distinguished from the seasonal cycle with temporal variation throughout winter. Winters lasting 120 days (Nov. 17–Mar. 16) for a period of 64 years from the NCEP daily reanalysis data set are used to study the seasonal scale variability of the EAWM. Cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis is adopted to decompose the variability of the EAWM. The second CSEOF mode of 850-hPa temperature exhibits a seasonal scale variation, the physical mechanism of which is explained in terms of physically consistent variations of temperature, geopotential height, sea level pressure, wind, and surface heat fluxes. The seasonal-scale EAWM exhibits a weak subseasonal and a strong interannual variability and has gradually weakened during the 64 years. In a weak EAWM phase, the land-sea contrast of sea level pressure declines in East Asia. Consistent with this change, low-level winds decrease and warm thermal advection increases over the eastern part of mid-latitude East Asia. Latent and sensible heat fluxes are reduced significantly over the marginal seas in East Asia. However, during a strong EAWM phase, the physical conditions in East Asia reverse. A large fraction of the variability of the EAWM is explained by the seasonal cycle and the seasonal scale variation. A two-dimensional EAWM index was developed to explain these two distinct components of the EAWM variability. The new index appears to be suitable for measuring both the subseasonal and the interannual variability of the EAWM.