Abstract
Abstract This study tests the applicability of Eurasian snow cover increase in October, as described by the recently published snow advance index (SAI), for forecasting December–February precipitation totals in Europe. On the basis of a classical correlation analysis, global significance was obtained and locally significant correlation coefficients of up to 0.89 and −0.78 were found for the Iberian Peninsula and southern Norway, respectively. For a more robust assessment of these results, a linear regression approach is followed to hindcast the precipitation sums in a 1-yr-out cross-validation framework, using the SAI as the only predictor variable. With this simple empirical approach, local-scale precipitation could be reproduced with a correlation of up to 0.84 and 0.71 for the Iberian Peninsula and southern Norway, respectively, while catchment aggregations on the Iberian Peninsula could be hindcast with a correlation of up to 0.73. These findings are confirmed when repeating the hindcast approach to a degraded but much longer version of the SAI. With the recommendation to monitor the robustness of these results as the sample size of the SAI increases, the authors encourage its use for the purpose of seasonal forecasting in southern Norway and the Iberian Peninsula, where general circulation models are known to perform poorly for the variable in question.
Highlights
In a recently published study, Cohen and Jones (2011) demonstrated that the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) as well as the concurrent temperature and mean sea level pressure anomalies over a large fraction of the Northern Hemispheric extratropics are statistically associated with Eurasian snow cover during the previous October
As wintertime precipitation anomalies in Europe are well known to be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Hurrell 1995; Rodriguez-Puebla et al 2001), which can be interpreted as the regional manifestation of the AO (Cohen and Barlow 2005), we expect the snow advance index (SAI) to be a simple tool for seasonal prediction in this area
The present study has shown that DJF precipitation totals on the Iberian Peninsula and southern Norway can be skillfully forecast from the previous October’s snow advance index, which is available for operational seasonal prediction at the onset of November
Summary
In a recently published study, Cohen and Jones (2011) demonstrated that the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) as well as the concurrent temperature and mean sea level pressure anomalies over a large fraction of the Northern Hemispheric extratropics are statistically associated with Eurasian snow cover during the previous October To describe the latter, they introduce the snow advance index (SAI), which, as an alternative to more sophisticated numerical simulations (Palmer et al 2004), is proposed as a simple measure of seasonal prediction (Goddard et al 2001). As wintertime precipitation anomalies in Europe are well known to be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Hurrell 1995; Rodriguez-Puebla et al 2001), which can be interpreted as the regional manifestation of the AO (Cohen and Barlow 2005), we expect the SAI to be a simple tool for seasonal prediction in this area This hypothesis is tested here, by relating it to precipitation totals of the following December–February (DJF) season, using gridded observations and station data. If this variable could be skillfully forecast one month ahead using a single empirical index, this would considerably ease the decision-making process of stakeholders involved in seasonal prediction (Garcıa-Morales and Dubus 2007)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
