Seasonal peak load prediction of underground gas storage using a novel two-stage model combining improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition and long short-term memory with a sparrow search algorithm

Abstract

Accurate seasonal peak load (SPL) prediction of underground gas storage (UGS) is of great significance for enterprises to formulate scheduling plans. In this work, a novel two-stage model is proposed to predict it. First, improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (ICEEMDAN) is used to decompose the seasonal peak load into several intrinsic mode function. Second, the highest frequency components are smoothed by using Gaussian smoothing (GS), and second highest frequency component is decomposed into several components by applying wavelet transform (WT). Third, long short-term memory (LSTM) optimized by improved sparrow search algorithm (ISSA) is utilized to predict them, and the prediction results of these components are recombined to obtain the final prediction results. Finally, the historical data of Wen 23 in the Zhongyuan gas storage group is taken as a case, and three key issues are discussed. The results: (1) Utilizing ICEEMDAN, GS, WT, and ISSA can effectively improve the prediction performance of the LSTM; (2) The prediction performance of one-step is better than that of multi-step; (3) The comprehensive error and stability evaluation index is reasonable. The following conclusion is reached: the established prediction model can be used as a reference for the development of the UGS scheduling platform.