Scenarios—using the complexity frame of reference to inform the construction of available futures in the possibility space

Abstract

The global socio-ecological system in the era of the Capitalocene—the world system created by the use of fossil fuels to provide energy for the development of a growth-oriented capitalist logic in all areas of production and consumption—is facing a set of interwoven sub-system crises that come together to make it extremely unlikely that the global system can continue in its present form. The whole system is in a state of crisis—a system state that cannot continue to exist and in which the system must either return to a previous system state—be resilient in the common usage of that word to mean “bouncing back”—or be transformed into a new relatively long-lasting but qualitatively different state. The most evident whole system crisis is, of course, a product of the impending climate transformation contingent upon global warming, but there are related crises of increasing social inequality, demographic structures, healthcare systems, fiscal and public expenditure processes, and urban systems in an urbanized world. These are all interwoven to constitute a polycrisis across the global socio-ecological world system. They are also manifested at all geographical levels and, in particular, at the level of city regions, which, in a predominantly urbanized world, are crucial levels for administration and action. The complex realist frame of reference can be used to inform the development of scenarios for the available alternative system states in the path-dependent possibility space. We have to start from where we are to get to where we want to go. Scenarios are not only descriptions of possible futures but also include a specification of the actions—the drivers—that shape the creation of specific kinds of futures in those available to us. The construction of scenarios should be done through a process of action research, involving a dialog among system scientists, key actors in governance systems, and civil society. The co-production of knowledge as a guide to action is essential.