Abstract
The article presents realistic and alternative (counterfactual) scenarios for the development of regional administrative and political elites in Russia in 1985-2004. The scenarios are built using a system-dynamic model that simulates elite recruitment in the Powersim Studio software environment. The model describes the mechanisms and channels for recruiting managerial personnel, as well as the sociopolitical forces that influenced elite substitution. Experiments with the model allow us to explore different variants of the evolution of elites. The counterfactual scenario proceeds from the hypothetical refusal of M.S. Gorbachev from dismantling the nomenclature system and from eliminating the CPSU’s control over the «placement of personnel». The model demonstrates that in this case, there was no rapid degradation of regional elites (as was the case in the realistic scenario). However, by the beginning of the 2000s, other systemic problems arose due to the gap between the principles of forming the management apparatus and the transforming socio-economic realities.
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