Scenarios for the development of the Kuznetsk coal basin

Abstract

In 2010 Kuznetsk coal basin (Kuzbass) achieved a record coal output for over more than a century of its development. Its future is however characterized by great uncertainty: the long-term projections of coal production vary by more than 100 million tons. This article analyzes trends in the global and domestic production and consumption of coal and concludes that the situation in the world market for Kuzbass coal exporters is relatively favorable for the next 20 years. At the same time, the opportunity to expand the domestic coal market by increased production of electricity and heat by coal-fired power plants looks less promising if there is no aid forthcoming from the state. On the basis of an analysis of external and internal factors, three major scenarios of coal production until 2030 in Kuzbass have been developed, namely, negative with a reduction in the output down to 150 mln t; maximal, with the output at a level of 285 mln t; and basic with an average rate of introduction of new capacities. A possible niche for Kuzbass in the global and domestic coal markets is discussed, and estimates of the environmental and economic impact on the region from the implementation of the considered scenarios are given.