Scenario-Based Analysis of the Impact of the Electrification of the Delivery Fleet on the Sustainability of E-Commerce—Forecast Until 2050

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This study analyzes the potential impact of the electrification of the delivery fleet on sustainability in the e-commerce sector, forecasting trends up to 2050. Scenario analysis, forecast models, and Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to evaluate the following three scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), partial electrification, and full electrification. This study focuses on reducing CO2 emissions, optimizing operating costs, and delivery time efficiency. The results indicate that full electrification can reduce CO2 emissions by more than 75% and operating costs by around 30% by 2050, while improving delivery time by around 15%. Partial electrification shows moderate benefits, with a reduction in CO2 emissions of around 50% and cost savings of 15%. This study emphasizes the significant potential of fleet electrification in solving environmental problems and increasing operational efficiency in e-commerce logistics, while identifying challenges in implementation and areas for future research.