Scenario-dependent discounting for climate change adaptation decisions for infrastructure

BackgroundThe prevalence of obesity has increased in societies of all socio-cultural backgrounds. To date, guidelines set forward to prevent obesity have universally emphasized optimal levels of physical activity. However there are few empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited.Methods/DesignThe Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed to assess the association between physical activity levels and relative weight, weight gain and diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five population-based samples at different stages of economic development. Twenty-five hundred young adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study; 500 from sites in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the United States. At baseline, physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometry and a questionnaire in all participants and by doubly labeled water in a subsample of 75 per site. We assessed dietary intake using two separate 24-hour recalls, body composition using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and health history, social and economic indicators by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected for measurement of lipids, glucose, insulin and adipokines. Full examination including physical activity using accelerometry, anthropometric data and fasting glucose will take place at 12 and 24 months. The distribution of the main variables and the associations between physical activity, independent of energy intake, glucose metabolism and anthropometric measures will be assessed using cross-section and longitudinal analysis within and between sites.DiscussionMETS will provide insight on the relative contribution of physical activity and diet to excess weight, age-related weight gain and incident glucose impairment in five populations' samples of young adults at different stages of economic development. These data should be useful for the development of empirically-based public health policy aimed at the prevention of obesity and associated chronic diseases.

In recent decades, a large number of authors investigated whether income inequality level and climate change were compatible. However, the relationship between inequality level impact and consumption-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions was scarcely analysed. Thus, the objective of the present paper was to analyse the relationship between income inequality level and consumption-based GHG emissions from 1990 to 2014 under different stages of economic development. The results revealed a large gap between consumption-based GHG emissions at different economic development stages. Economic growth contributed to the growth of consumption-based GHG emissions in all income groups, and the largest effect was observed in middle-low- and low-income countries. Higher income inequality level was associated with lower negatively influenced consumption-based emissions in high- and middle-high-income countries, confirming the marginal propensity to emit and 'Veblen effect' theories. Meanwhile, regarding the middle-low- and low-income groups, the relationships between inequality level and GHG emissions were insignificant. Urbanisation level contributed to the growth of consumption-based GHG emissions in middle- and low-income countries. Education level contributed to the reduction of consumption-based GHG emissions in high-, middle-high-, and middle-low-income countries, and growth of emissions in low-income countries. Therefore, our analysis revealed that income inequality and climate change are still incompatible in all income groups, and we suggested how to achieve the reduction of income inequality and climate change simultaneously.

The challenges and opportunities of climate change policy under different stages of economic development

This study investigated the contributions of human capital and physical capital to economies at different stages by measuring the economic development with the traditional GDP and green GDP. The traditional GDP stood for the quantity of economic growth, and the green GDP, taking both the energy consumption and environmental pollution into account, was employed to represent the sustainability of economic development. We used a panel data of 143 countries and regions during the period from 1990 to 2014, and results showed that the elasticities of output with respect to human capital were greater compared to physical capital, while green GDP was significantly more sensitive to changes in human capital than the traditional GDP. In particular, considering the unbalanced distribution of economic growth among countries and regions, we employed the quantile regression model to explore the heterogeneous roles of physical and human capital in different stages of economic development, which evidenced not only the significance but also the stability of human capital. As national economic levels grew, countries became less dependent on physical capital, yet human capital maintained its outstanding role at different stages of economic development, particularly for the building of more sustainable economies.

Managing flood risks in a changing climate

IntroductionThis study aimed to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and drivers of the kidney cancer burden across BRICS member countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) from 1990 to 2021. Given the significant global rise in kidney cancer incidence, elucidating its epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors in countries at different stages of economic development is crucial for formulating targeted prevention and control strategies.MethodsThis study innovatively integrated Joinpoint regression and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) modeling using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study to quantify trends in kidney cancer incidence and mortality in BRICS nations. The APC model was employed to disentangle the independent effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the disease burden. These findings were subsequently interpreted in the context of national socioeconomic conditions and health policies to identify key drivers.ResultsGlobally, kidney cancer incidence increased by 142.74% from 1990 to 2021. Saudi Arabia experienced the most dramatic increase (877.78%), while Russia reported the highest Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR) in 2021 (10.10 per 100,000). Global mortality rates increased by 108.22%, led by the United Arab Emirates (700% growth), with Russia exhibiting the highest Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) in 2021 (4.07 per 100,000). Furthermore, APC analysis identified critical drivers: the age effect peaked in the older populations (e.g., Russia’s mortality rate reached 42.8 per 100,000 at age 92.5); the period effect showed a surge in risk after 2000 in most nations (Saudi Arabia’s period Rate Ratio [RR]: 1.52); the cohort effect indicated a 6.60-fold elevated risk for China’s 2002 birth cohort compared to the 1952 baseline, contrasting with declining risks in younger Russian cohorts (RR: 0.66). Regional disparities highlighted interactions between economic transitions and health inequities. Specifically, Saudi Arabia’s burden was associated with metabolic disorders, Russia’s decline aligned with tobacco control initiatives, and India’s rural underdiagnosis reflected critical healthcare gaps.DiscussionThe kidney cancer burden in BRICS countries demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity, driven by mechanisms related to population aging, the prevalence of metabolic risk factors, and disparities in healthcare accessibility. The findings underscore the necessity of strengthening environmental governance, implementing metabolic health interventions, and optimizing healthcare resource allocation to advance health equity and achieve Sustainable Development Goals. These insights provide a scientific basis for developing cross-regional strategies for cancer control.

The traditional literature on the role of intellectual property rights (IPR) in innovation highlights the strength of IPR protection in the context of the tradeoff between innovation and diffusion. More recent literature analyzes the role of diverse forms of IPR in promoting innovation and growth and delves into not only regular patents but also utility models (or petite patents) and trademarks. Using firm‐level IPR (patents, designs and trademarks) data from Korea, we further extend this new strand of literature to explore the role of designs at different stages of development. The data spans five decades and can be divided into three subperiods that represent different stages of economic development. We find that design‐intensive sectors tend to be more export oriented. Further, firms’ sales growth is significantly associated with the design intensity of firms. Such association is found only during the later stages of economic development in Korea. Taken together with earlier studies, our findings imply that different forms of IPR, in particular designs, matter differently for innovation and firm performance at different stages of development. Designs are not that important in the early stages of development when economic growth relies on the mass production of low‐cost goods by low‐wage workers. The importance of design rises with economic development at later stages when product differentiation becomes critical. A unique and smart appearance increases value in the eye of the customer value and, thus, could help firms’ sales performance.

Objective: To empirically investigate the relationship between education quality and technological progress in the business sector at different stages of economic development. Research Design & Methods: We divided 160 countries into four groups by GDP per capita. The research period was 2007–2021. We use Spearman’s correlation analysis to verify associations between nine indicators for education quality and ten indicators for technological progress. Findings: Our outcomes show that if education quality does not improve, countries do not move up the economic development ladder. Adult literacy, primary education quality, adult skills, and women’s average years in school have the strongest influence on technological progress. Implications / Recommendations: Our paper contains many implications for those seeking to improve social well-being. For example, governments should ensure that women have access to education on equal terms with men. Otherwise, they lose an important source of technological progress and impede the development of human capital. Greater emphasis should be placed on learning how to write and describe reality, read with comprehension, perform simple calculations without a calculator, and teach various learning methods. In the absence of these, the skills of primary, secondary and higher education graduates will not improve. Contribution: The outcomes of our research, both theoretical and empirical, create a multi-faceted approach to the issue of the mutual influence of education and technological progress. They allow us to look at this problem from the perspective of subsequent stages of economic development.

Addressing climate change impact on the energy system: a technoeconomic and environmental approach to decarbonisation

Electric power is the basic industry of a modern country. The rapid development of the power industry has promoted economic development and social progress. With the establishment of the carbon neutrality target of carbon peak, China's power industry is also facing new situations and new challenges. This paper innovatively introduces the concept of allometric growth in biology, and uses the data of provincial electricity consumption and economic development from 1972 to 2017, to study the allometric growth relationship between electricity consumption and economics in China at multiple scales. Combined with the spatial autocorrelation analysis method, the temporal and spatial characteristics of allometric growth between electricity consumption and economic development were researched based on the analysis of spatial correlation of GDP electricity consumption intensity. The results show that: (1) The provincial GDP electricity consumption intensity shows an aggregate distribution, and the local aggregate pattern changed significantly from 1972 to 2017. (2) The High-High Cluster gradually disappeared, and the Low-Low Cluster moved southward, appearing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. (3) The differential growth coefficient of electricity consumption and economic development increased initially and decreased from 1972 to 2017. (4) GDP would increase by 7.4%, 20.1%, and 15.6% in the simulation of electricity consumption, increasing 10% at the three stages of China's economic development. (5) The allometric growth coefficients of electricity consumption and economic development are very different in the three economic belts, eight economic zones, and provinces with different characteristics at the different stages of economic development. Formulating differentiated regulation policies for regional economic development and electricity consumption will be conducive to the coordinated development of electric power production and the national economy.

ABSTRACT:Thomas Donaldson’s framework for dealing with value-conflicts between a manager’s home and host country distinguishes between a “conflict of relative [economic] development”—conflicting norms that arise because home and host are at two different stages of economic development—and a “conflict of culture,” which arises because the home and host’s different cultures generate conflicting norms on the issue the manager faces. My question here is a thought experiment. What different insights might emerge if we flipped Donaldson’s framework around? Specifically: What if we viewed the kinds of conflicts that fall under Donaldson’s “conflicts of culture” as arising not because the home and host exhibit a “fundamental” conflict in cultural norms, but because they are at two different stages ofculturaldevelopment? And what if we viewed “conflicts of relative economic development” as conflicts that occur not because home and host are at two different stages of economic development but, simply, because their economies contemporaneously interact with each other in ways that generate normative conflict: call them “conflicts of economy”?

The relationship between construction output and economic growth has been well discussed by construction economists. Most of the previous studies found a positive correlation between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and various measures of construction output. However, cross‐sectional analysis was commonly adopted but longitudinal analysis has been called upon. Furthermore, recent research argued that non‐linear relationship between GDP and construction output exists because of different stages of economic development in different countries. They explained the phenomenon by means of the change of the growth rates of construction output at different stages of economic development, but the argument has not yet been rigorously tested. With the availability of long time‐series of data of Hong Kong construction industry, this paper attempts to test longitudinally the relationship between the real growth rate of construction output and the real growth rate of GDP. It was found that the growth rate of GDP led that of construction output, and as the growth rate of GDP increased, the growth rate of construction output was marginally diminishing. It agrees with the proposition that construction industry is relatively inefficient in productivity improvement and the accumulation of capital investment results in a marginally diminishing growth of construction output.

Achieving the win-win goal of economic development and carbon intensity reduction, especially through industrial restructuring, is a challenge involving uncertainty and complexity. Determining which industry is green and whether it should be encouraged or limited at different stages of economic development are key issues. The relationship between industrial structure and carbon intensity was systematically analyzed in 21 industrial sectors from 1971 to 2014 in eight developed countries, with different levels of economic development, using an extended dynamic threshold model. The results indicated that there is a relationship between industrial composition and carbon intensity, and the impact trajectory of industrial structure on carbon intensity can be classified into four categories: contaminated, pollution-clean, cleaning hysteresis, and enhanced cleaning. Each type of sectoral relationship between GDP and carbon intensity would change at certain economic levels. The change points for most sectors were US$ 525 and US$ 3904 GDP per capita, which represent the points at which a country enters the mid-industrialization and high-tech industrialization stages, respectively. Therefore, the government and enterprises must upgrade their industrial structure as the national GDP increases, adjust the proportion of sectors operating according to the industrial characteristics, and improve production technology through environmental regulation.

Exploring the transition effects of foreign direct investment on the eco-efficiency of Chinese cities: Based on multi-source data and panel smooth transition regression models

National innovation systems and the achievement of sustainable development goals: Effect of knowledge-based dynamic capability