Scenario analysis of the CO2 emissions reduction potential through clean coal technology in India's power sector: 2014–2050

Abstract

The aim of this study is to explore the CO2 emission reduction potential through clean coal technology in India's power sector. A simulation model of India's coal-fired power sector based on system dynamics methodology (Vensim DSS platform) investigates three growth scenarios for coal-fired plants until the year 2050. Three further scenarios consider the market penetration of clean coal technology to investigate CO2 emission reduction until 2050 for each of the growth scenarios. Our analysis indicates that clean coal technology has significant potential for reducing CO2 emissions from India's power sector by accelerating the development of clean coal technology. The future coal demand and coal import requirements for India under different growth scenarios of coal-fired power plants have also been estimated in this study. The study suggests that coal demand and importation from India will increase at a faster pace in the coming decades. According to IPCC's latest assessment report, CO2 emissions must be reduced by between 40% and 70% by 2050 from the 2010 level to limit the global temperature rise to two degrees centigrade relative to pre-industrial levels. Projected carbon emissions in this work from India's coal-fired power plants would exceed their share in global emissions assumed in the IPCC's latest assessment. Our model simulation indicates that only CO2 capture and storage have the potential to reduce the emissions level from India's coal-fired plants to the desired level in the report.