Abstract
A new version of the model Save production simulates the development of energy use in the Dutch industry and agriculture, including combined heat and power generation. The model disaggregates national energy consumption into fuel types, industrial sectors, energy functions and energy technologies. Simulation is based on microeconomic investment behavior. Examples of model application show results on the penetration of combined heat and power in relation to policy instruments such as CO 2 prices, electricity price support and investment subsidies. Policies that discriminate on CO 2 emissions result in a slightly more efficient heat and power generation. Tailored to the Dutch situation, Save production is well equipped to generate outlooks for the Dutch industrial and agricultural energy use, and for analyzing the role of policies in detail. Its main strength lies in the middle term simulation of decision-making on energy saving technologies and analysis of policy effects. Specific precautions are required when the model is used for analysis on the longer-term, for simulating extreme policies or for the analysis of extremely fluctuating energy prices.
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