Russian Economy in 2017–2019: The Prerequisites for a Breakthrough Have Not Yet Been Created

Abstract

The article presents the results of Russia’s social and economic development in 2017 and the first half of 2018, as well as the expected results of the end of the current year and forecasts for the near future. A comparison of the trends in the development of the Russian and world economies in the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production, inflation and other significant macroeconomic indicators for the first half of 2018 is given. The problems, threats and risks associated with ensuring the acceleration of development, creating prerequisites for the implementation of the Russian President’s Address to the Federal Assembly dated March 1, 2018, and the subsequent May Decree on national objectives and strategic tasks of the country’s development until the year 2024 are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the impact of investment activity, foreign sanctions and Russian response measures on the real sector of the economy as well as social and financial spheres at the federal level. The shortcomings of the current management system and the problems of creating prerequisites for structural reorganization of the Russian economy and the transition of its budgetary support on the basis of the program-target and project principles are considered. The consequences of economic, budgetary, monetary, industrial, investment and other state policies and their impact on social progress are analyzed, including the dynamics of real household incomes, consumer activity, and internal and external turnover. Based on the analysis carried out, forecasts for macroeconomic indicators and, above all, development of the real sector of the economy, providing for the acceleration of social progress and overcoming threats to the economic, scientific, technical and other sovereignties of the country, are presented.