Abstract
Rural–urban gradients offer an appropriate ecological framework for understanding relevant social issues to sustainability and policy planning. We tested the hypothesis that human population growth rate at a local scale is indirectly driven by spatial and rurality gradients, which can be applied to cultural landscapes in Mediterranean Europe. The whole of local administrative/spatial units of Spain—8125 municipalities—, previously classified into five categories along a rural–urban gradient, was used as a case study. Several geospatial patterns and associations among local average per capita population growth rate, population mean age, road accessibility, and other environmental and landscape variables linked to rurality gradients were identified by means of geographic information system (GIS) and multivariate statistics. Regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between population size changes through time and other demographic and territorial variables. Population growth rate was associated with road accessibility and rurality gradient, supporting the established hypothesis. Short-term population growth or decline was directly driven by population mean age. A visual hypothesized model of local population growth rate based on empirical evidence is presented. The results are useful for decision-makers, from local land management interventions to developing strategies and policies to address the demographic challenge.
Highlights
The increase in world human population size is a concern for global sustainability [1]
The results show that spatial variation in the population growth rate among municipalities was independent of their population size or density, while some territorial variables, such as road accessibility and rurality, were extrinsic potential drivers
Human population growth rate at a local scale seems to be driven by population mean age, and could be indirectly driven by spatial and rurality gradients
Summary
The increase in world human population size is a concern for global sustainability [1]. While world population size is expected to increase and peaks near 10,000 million people at the end of the twenty-first century, in recent decades there has been a concern for an opposite trend, the population decline in some regions of the world [6]. During the last 50 years, the population growth rate in the European Union (EU) showed a downward trend, reaching negative average values at national level in the period 2004–2013 in 10 out of 28 EU countries [7]. Better integration of population dynamics into development planning at national and subnational levels is relevant to comprehensively react to demographic change and its implications
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
